Sunday/Late Afternoon

Sorry I haven't posted for sometime. I was on my Christmas vacation. I believe that Christmas time is for remembering what Jesus did for us the day he died on the cross, thus I took the break to remember His sacrifice.

This will also be my last post until Thursday. I am taking a trip to Alabama and won't be back until Thursday afternoon...right in time for the first potential winter storm of the year across Kentuckiana.

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



After a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms, the cooler weather has returned across much of Kentuckiana. Wind gusts last night as the front sweeped through registered 60 MPH in some areas. Their were reports of scattered trees down throughout the region.

Temperatures will begin to warm once again tomorrow after a brief cool down today. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will top out in the lower and middle 50's with lows in the lower 30's both nights. A rather potent, but dry cold front will slide through the state Tuesday. This will drop temperatures temperatures into the middle 30's for highs Wednesday into New Year's Day.

POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

The cold front Tuesday will lock the cold air in right in time for a storm system to affect the region Thursday night into Friday. Fairly potent low will track across E. Tennessee/S.E. Kentucky Friday morning. Precipitation should begin Thursday night and will be in the form of all snow if models verify. Friday the Gulf of Mexico will be wide open for business as the low pulls north into the colder air. Widespread precipitation should overspread the region Friday morning and continue through Friday Evening. Right now based on the latest model runs, most of the precipitation should be in the form of snow except across Eastern Kentucky where a rain/snow mix looks plausible due to the close proximity of the low. Right now models are depicting the heaviest QPF (Qualitive Precipitation Forecast) to be planted right across the Kentuckiana region. If models continue to support all snow...we could be looking at several inches of the white stuff (6 inches+) on the ground by Saturday morning. This storm system may have significant impacts on the region, due to the travel antcipated on New Year's day and Friday as people return from their holiday destinations. Please stay tuned to your local TV stations and your National Weather Service for the latest weather information.

Here is what the National Weather Service in Louisville is saying: FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD ON THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME FRAME. 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND 00Z RUN OF THE EURO PLACE A DIGGING UPR LEVEL TROF ACRS THE UPR/MID MS VLY AT 12Z FRI AND MOVE IT ACRS OUR FA FRI/FRI EVE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY THU IN WAA PATTERN/RETURN FLO WITH HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATL COASTAND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VLY TO LOW PRES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS. GFS DEEPENS MOISTURE RAPIDLY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW MOVES ACRS THE WRN GULF STATES THEN TRACKS INTO ECNTRL TN BY 12Z FRI. THIS LOW TRACK WOULD FAVOR SNOW FOR MUCH OF OUR FA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OUR SRN/ERN AREAS WHERE BNDRY LAYER/LOW LEVELS FAVOR RAIN...OR SNOW GOING TO RAIN AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE EURO IS LESS AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY WITH ITS SFC FEATURES...WITH WEAK LOW PRES ACRS THE LA/MSGULF COAST AND CONSIDERABLY LESS QPF. PRECIP TYPE WOULD GO TO ALL SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF CDFNT FRI. NEW MEX GUID DROPS FRI MAXS ABOUT 5 DEGS FROM PREVIOUS RUN ACRS THE WRN HALF OF OUR FA...INDICATIVE OF LOW TRACK INTO E/SE KY. ITAPPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT BEHIND SYS...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NE FA...INCLUDING THE BLUEGRASS REGION. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE NEW EURO/ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS LATEST GFS RUN. IF SO...BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF GFS QPF GIVEN (-.40 N ANDABOUT 1.00 S) A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE DAY WED FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL UP POPS A BIT FOR THAT PERIOD AND INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW/LOWER TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEGS FROM PREV FCST FOR FRI.

Here is what the National Weather Service in Indianapolis is saying: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW AND BOTH HAVE ALSO CONSISTENTLY BEEN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. THIS IS STILL DAY 5/6 TIME FRAME SO THINGS COULD CHANGE HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN VERY DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

Again I will NOT be posting until Thursday afternoon and by then the storm will be very close to the region.

For updates please refer to the links below

LINK-National Weather Service

LINK-John Belski's weather blog

Monday/Mid Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Ice and rain expected tomorrow***



Tricky forecast shaping up for tomorrow. Precipitation will start out as freezing rain and sleet then change to all rain tomorrow night. The question is how much ice accumulation do we get before the change over to rain? Right now it looks like a minor event, but models, I believe have been overplaying the warm air. All in all, could be some slick roads tomorrow afternoon, so if you have any travel plans...be careful! Precipitation may end as a brief period of snow on Christmas Eve, but right now doesn't look to be enough to cause to many problems. I will have much more today as the latest model runs come in. More later...

Friday/Early Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***High winds will continue through the evening hours***

After some heavy rain this morning, the precipitation is now well to the north and now it's just windy! The National Weather Services in Louisville and Indianapolis have posted WIND ADVISORIES for the rest of today. Some of the winds later this afternoon could gust up to 50 MPH, so make sure you pick up any loose objects outside! Next storm system will enter the region Saturday night into Sunday. Right now it looks like mainly a rain maker changing over to a few snow showers or snow flurries Sunday morning. This front may not bring much snow, but it will bring the colder weather. Temperatures will plummet into the lower 20's for highs and lower teens for lows region wide on Moday. Some models don't go this low with the temperatures, but decided to go with a colder solution due to the intensity of the cold front.

CHRISTMAS STORM UPDATE: Alright many are wanting to know...will their be a white Christmas? Well I am by no means giving up yet, but it's not looking good.

Models are really beginning to pull some warm air in here Tuesday into Wednesday and you would think that the cold air would hang on, but it's not going to according to the latest models...

The GFS now takes this storm nearly into the Great Lakes which means heavy rain for us. If the GFS is correct, places like Chicago would even see rain out of this system. Other models are beginning to trend westward with the storm as well. All in all, today has been another dissapointment, and I am getting close to jumping on the NO snow bandwagon. I won't do it yet though, because models will still change the next several days, and let's hope it's for the better. The GFS will nearly have to flip flop about 400 miles to the south and 200 miles to the east for it to be a good snow for us. We'll see...don't give up yet...

Thursday/Late Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Rain and thunderstorms tonight***



A powerful storm system will move out of the Plain States tonight, producing a variety of weather across the Midwest. Areas across Central and North Central Indiana may have an issue with ice during the onset of precipitation. Winter weather advisories continue for the Indianapolis area and areas that are adjacent to Indianapolis. Areas north of Indianapolis may recieve a quarter inch of ice before the change over to rain, so ice storm warnings have been posted north of Indianapolis. If you live in Central or North Central Indiana, please be careful tonight and if you are traveling up that way, take your time! For us, it's all rain and we may even see a few thunderstorms after midnight. No severe weather is expected, but very dangerous lightning can accompany any thunderstorm, so please stay away from tall tress, powerlines etc...

Weekend still looks like a rain to snow event, with very little accumulation, but as always, I will keep an eye on it.

CHRISTMAS STORM UPDATE: We have two very powerful arctic fronts moving through the region the next 4 days. One today and the other (more powerful) on Monday, which will hopefully keep the cold air locked in. The only thing we will have to keep a eye on is the track of the storm system. A more northerly track would mean more rain and a more southerly track would mean more snow. Their is still a few models that are cutting this storm through the Great Lakes with another snowstorm for them and rain storm for us. Others are pulling for the colder solution with more snow for us. As you can tell, their is alot of disagreement in computer models right now, and we won't have a plausible solution until later this weekend. Even though models don't look good for snow today...don't get dissapointed! The models will do their usual flip flops the next several days. I am dreaming of a white Christmas and hopefully the Lord has the same plan in mind! Have a great rest of the day!

I will have more tonight as the newest model runs come in for the weekend and the Christmas storm! STAY TUNED!

More later...

Thursday/Early Afternoon

Rain will begin to move into tonight. It will start off as freezing rain across Central Indiana, so if you live up that way...be careful for the evening rush hour.

Quick check on the models shows a warmer storm for Christmas, but plenty of time for the models to come around. I still believe the cold air will be their.

Anyways, a much more detailed posting later this afternoon...stay tuned!

Wednesday/Late Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected overnight***



Very active weather pattern will continue across the Midwest and Ohio Valley Region with three storm systems making a bullseye right toward the region Thursday/Friday, Saturday/Sunday, and for Christmas. I am going to break these down 1 by 1 below.

STORM 1: Thursday/Friday

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has posted WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES and WINTER STORM WATCHES (Map below) for Central and North Central Indiana. A powerful storm system will enter the region tomorrow afternoon and precipitation will overrun the front tomorrow evening. Areas that are under the winter weather advisories and winter storm watches can expect ice accumulation of .10-.25. This can cause very slick areas on roadways...so be careful! A few places across South Central Indiana, preferably Jackson, Jennings, and Lawerence may start off as freezing rain, but change to rain very quickly. Areas south of these counties will stay all rain through the entire storm system. Some of the rain could be fairly heavy Thursday night, so please take your time driving!

(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)



STORM 2: Saturday night/Sunday

Another storm system will enter the region Saturday night into Sunday. Most areas across extreme Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky should remain warm enough for all rain overnight Saturday, but precipitation may end as some snow on Sunday. Again areas across South Central Indiana may be cold enough Saturday night for rain to change to snow. Some accumulation is possible, so this is something I will continue to keep an eye on! STAY TUNED!

STORM 3: Christmas Snowstorm?

Could this be the old saying..."The third time is a charm". Well this Christmas storm does have rather significant potential to whiten up things for Christmas Eve into Christmas day.

Let's run through the latest on this POTENTIAL Christmas snowstorm...

Henry Margusity from ACCUWEATHER has made a map for this storm...



The National Weather Service in Louisville is already mentioning this storm as well...

A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA ON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY FAIRLY COLD SO MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN STORE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL TIMES JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS.

Here is the 12Z run of the GFS

(HOUR 156-Christmas Eve morning)

Storm begins to develop in the Plain States




HOUR 162-Christmas Eve afternoon
Storm really begins to crank. Moisture widespread across the region with the cold air locked in!



Hour 168-Christmas Eve: Evening Hours

Storm in perfect postion for Ohio Valley snowstorm. Low nicely wrapped up and plentiful moisture across the entire region.



Hour 174-Late Evening: Christmas Eve

Storm continues with heavy snow



Hour 180-Early Christmas Day

Low wraps up and moves east. Wrap around snow continues...



IF this model were to pan out, were talking 10+ inches of snow across Southern Indiana with a little less across Northern Kentucky due to some ice mixing in. Again I am just throwing this out here for comments and forecasts from you. I love to speculate about snowstorms in the long term, and this one will be even more interesting to talk about since its for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Again, it's not even set in stone that we will see snow on Christmas, but the potential is beginning to increase for a white Christmas...STAY TUNED!

Wednesday/Early Afternoon

I have had some emails and comments about the potential for snow Sunday. Right now, computer models are beginning to trend colder with this system, but again the system is stills several days away. I will have more during the late afternoon hours discussing the potential for accumulating snow Sunday as well as the cold weather thats expected to stick around for quite a while. More later...

Tuesday/Late Evening

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Very slick roads across Kentuckiana***

Slick roads have developed across Kentuckiana. Light freezing rain and drizzle will continue through the overnight hours. The National Weather Service has posted WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES for all of Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. Their will likely be school delays tomorrow, so make sure you tune in to your local news stations to see if your school is on the list. PLEASE DRIVE CAREFULLY TONIGHT!

Here are a few things we will discuss tomorrow...

-Storm for Thursday/Friday

-Winter Storm Sunday/Monday???

-Cold arctic air to stay?

-Will we have a white Christmas?

Sunday/Early Evening

OK, here is the deal on the winter weather situation.

National Weather Services in Louisville, Paducah, Central Illinois, and St. Louis have all issued some type of winter weather advisory, watch, or warning.

The first round of precip tomorrow will be fairly light, but by tomorrow night the precipitation will pick up in intensity, especially across Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will all accompany this storm system. I would not be suprised to see significant amounts of ice accumulation across the entire viewing area. Power outages will become a possibility as well. Its is astonishing how fast the temperatures are dropping behind the cold front...this is frankly a cold front that will have major implications on a good part of the Ohio Valley. More later...

Saturday/Late Evening

OK, here is the deal.

The models are doing an awful job at determining the amount of cold air that catches up to the precipitation.

I think most of Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky will see a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY situation tomorrow, but would not be suprised to see places like Jackson, Jennings, and Lawerence counties placed under a WINTER STORM WARNING. I still think their is going to be good glazing of ice along with 1-2 inches of snow and sleet. Lot's of forecasters are downplaying this storm system, but I am not buying the GFS at this point. The GFS has hardly any post frontal precipitation with mainly rain for the entire region, and again I don't buy that. I am basing my forecast off the latest run of the NAM which has the cold air in quicker with more post frontal precipitation.

Current thinking is about a quarter inch of ice across far Northern Kentucky with lesser amounts south. Their may be some snow after the icing, but not to much in the way of accumulation.

Across Southern Indiana, their will be more problems. Looks to be around one quarter inch of ice with snow and sleet accumulation of 1-2 inches after the initial glazing of ice. Advisories and potential warnings will be posted tomorrow. Hazardous driving conditions will develop Monday night and travel Tuesday morning will become very difficult. STAY TUNED!

Friday/Late Evening

OK, just a quick update on the winter storm set to begin Monday evening and end Tuesday morning...

Not to much of a change from the last discussion. Still looks like a decent portion of the area is in for a rather nasty ice storm, with more snow to the north across Southern Indiana. I have had a few comments saying 4-8 inches of snow. Not buying into that high of a number yet. Their is still precipitation and timing issues that need to be worked out. We will know much more tomorrow and WINTER STORM WATCHES will probably be posted to our west by the day shift tomorrow afternoon. Have a great night! More tomorrow...

Friday/Mid Evening

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***

Focus will be on winter storm to affect the region starting Sunday night and ending Tuesday morning...

Just going to post a long discussion with maps to come later tonight...

OK, many know their is some type of winter weather event to affect the Ohio Valley beginning Sunday night and ending Tuesday morning. Precipitation types and amounts will be in question probably until tommorrow, but Kentuckiana looks to have it's first significant winter storm of the year. Sunday night the precipitation will begin as rain and then begin to transition to freezing rain, sleet, then eventually all snow Monday into Monday night. Some of the precipitation will become fairly heavy Monday night. Right now the better shot at accumulating snows will be across Southern Indiana, while icing may be a problem further south. Accumulations are still very much up in the air, but if models continue to trend toward the GFS, 2-4 looks probable across Southern Indiana with some icing issues. Southward across extreme Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky, 1-3 inches of snow looks probable with the potential for significant ice accumulations. Again these accumulations are very preliminary and these will likely be altered tomorrow as models begin to agree on what actually will transpire. Nevertheless, Kentuckiana looks to be in line for a significant winter storm beginning Monday and ending early Tuesday morning. If all does come together for this winter storm, travel will become very difficult Monday night into Tuesday. If you have any plans to travel through this part of the country early next week, DO NOT cancel your plans, but keep an eye on how this winter weather event will unfold for the Ohio Valley! STAY TUNED! Much more later...

Thursday/Late Evening

We'll have to keep an eye on things for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Still looking like a potential icing event. I'm going to hold off tonight about this system, because their are still a few kinks that have to be worked out (amount of moisture, cold air) I will have much more tomorrow and probably begin to talk some specifics if models begin to agree. Have a great night! More tomorrow...

Thursday/Early Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



Focus will be on potential for a winter storm early next week...

It's been a very cloudy and much cooler day across the Ohio Valley Region. The system that is beginning to affect the east coast will still bring some lingering rain showers to southeast Kentucky, potentially mixing with some freezing rain. The weekend looks much warmer with highs in the middle 40's Saturday and lower 50's by Sunday!

Early next week's potential winter event has not been advertised very well, and it has fairly good potential to be the first winter weather event of the year. To call it a potential winter storm might be pushing it, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

I cannot post the latest models. The 12Z GFS I was trying to bring up was from this May...go figure.

Anyhow the latest 12Z GFS has the precipitation starting out as rain Monday morning and continuing through the afternoon. Then the precip begins to change over to a mix of sleet and snow across Southern Indiana, while areas south along the Ohio River, have a mixture of rain and freezing rain. The latest GFS depicts fairly plentiful moisture behind the initial cold front. The GFS has been most consistent with the cold air to support frozen precipitation and has been the most consistent with the abundant moisture. I'll keep an eye on things through today and bring the you the latest tonight. Nonetheless, this looks to be the first winter weather event of the year! Will it be the first winter storm? That's still up for debate. More later...

Tuesday/Early Evening

Evening update will ponder on the thoughts of a potential accumulating snow Thursday into Friday. The storm that was forecast to go up the East Coast during this time frame continues to shift westward with the latest model runs. If it happens to go west of Apps and their is enough cold air...we could be talking about a decent snowstorm. Again this is not set in stone, and we will discuss more about this potential in the late evening package...

Tuesday/Early Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Moderate to Heavy rain continues along with windy conditions***



Its been a rainy and very blustery day across the Ohio Valley. Rainfall amounts have been over 1 inch in my areas, and rain will continue to fall right through the early evening before ending tonight. As the cold front cuts through the state, their may be a few flurries or sleet pellets later tonight on the backside. No accumulation of snow or sleet is expected.

After this weather get's a little quiet, but a big warm up is on the way. Would not be suprised to see temperatures in the upper 50's to near 60 by the weekend. If you can get the weekend off of work, this would be one of those weekends to do so.

I am keeping an eye on a potential storm system near Christmas that could bring us rain or snow. I will have more on that later tonight...Have a great rest of the afternoon!

Monday/Early Evening

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Moderate to Heavy Rain tonight***




Moderate to Heavy rain will enter the region later tonight and continue for most of today tomorrow. Right now, it looks like a widespread 1 inch of rain can be expected across Kentuckiana. Rain may briefly mix with freezing rain to our north in Northern Indiana, thus the National Weather Service has issued a freezing rain advisory for those living in Northeast Indiana.

Just this short post for now. More later on...may God bless you!

Saturday/Early Evening

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***SLICK SPOTS HAVE CAUSED CRASHES ON MANY KENTUCKIANA ROADS...MORE SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT!

Folks, please be careful out their tonight...several slick spots will develop due to wet roads and cold temperatures. TAKE YOUR TIME AND USE YOUR WINTER DRIVING SKILLS!

Storm for Tuesday will be mainly rain, but may begin as a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across Southern Indiana before transitioning to all rain. Sorry if I seemed to hype this storm the last several days, I did not do so intentionally. I really did believe it would be our first winter storm of the year, but the models just keep shifting the storm further north and west. I really am beginning to learn as a weather forecaster, not to get to excited about one model run. Earlier in the week, one of the models had quite the snowstorm for the Ohio Valley, and I jumped right on the bandwagon. Models, especially this time of year DO NOT come to a solution until a few days before the actual storm approaches. Models, will likely change a bit with the Tuesday system, but probably not enough to change our precipitation type. It's mainly rain for Tuesday/Wednesday...so we'll just have to wait for the next potential winter storm. Have a great night and be safe!

Friday/Very Late Evening

OK this is it for tonight, but much more tomorrow.

Here is the latest GFS

(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)

Hour 96-Low is well west of the APPS. This is about 25-30 miles east of the 18Z run of the GFS. East is good, because this brings the colder air in quicker.



Hour 102-By hour 102 the Low is nearly right on top of Louisville which isn't to good for snow/ice for Kentuckiana.



Right now the issue is, how much cold air will be wrapped in with this system? With the very strong storm system the GFS is forecasting, I just don't see how cold air could not, eventually be wrapped into the storm system, still with plentiful moisture left to move through the region. Right now the NAM/GFS have been trending further west all day, as well as other models. I, personally am not buying the warm air that is being forecast by some of these computer models. I just don't see how you can have such a strong storm system, and not have cold air immediately wrapped into it. Right now, if models are correct, this would mainly be a rain event for the Ohio Valley, changing to a brief period of snow. I am not buying into this solution yet, so let's wait for some more model runs tonight and tomorrow and beyond before we start making conclusions about where the storm will go and how much cold air will be available. I will have much more tomorrow, but for now...just not buying the warm air the models are showing...STAY TUNED!

Friday/Late Evening

Many meteorologists seem to be giving up on the potential snow/ice event for the Ohio Valley Region. I may not be an official meteorologist, but I see no reason to call this storm a bust for Kentuckiana yet.

Latest GFS took the storm pretty well to the west and well west of The APPS. You are probably asking yourself...isn't that a good thing? Well in this case its a bit to far north and west, so it pulls the warmer air to the north, giving us mainly rain. If models begin to trend east and south the next few runs, I believe it's time to get excited. I think we are underestimating just how much cold air may be wrapped into this system. Whoever does get snow/ice, it will be significant and potentially life threatening. I will have maps and discussion later tonight as the latest runs of the GFS/NAM come in, then much more tomorrow...STAY TUNED!

Friday/Late Afternoon

Storm has been trending further north and west all day, and that is good news, but can we get the cold air to lock in for mainly snow/ice. Right now it looks like a rain event changing to snow, but obviously, still plenty of time for this to change. I will have more tonight when latest model runs come in...

Here are what a few of the National Weather Services are saying...

NWS in Indianapolis: ALL MODELS INDICATE OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY IN ADVANCE OFNEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN VERY DRY AIR TOBE IN PLACE EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS. PRECIP TYPESTILL IN QUESTION THOUGH TRENDS SUGGEST SOUTHERN COUNTIES START WITHA MIX TO TRANSITION TO RAIN WHILE NORTH COUNTIES MAY BE BIT ICY.WILL KEEP AS RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW. RECENT TRENDS INCREASINGLIKELIHOOD OF EVENT SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME TO REFLECT THIS...INCLUDING LKLY POPS FOR PART OF AREA TUESDAY.

NWS in Louisville: MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHTAS MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50 TO 90 KTS BEGINS TO NOSEINTO THE AREA. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILLCONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASINGCHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STARTING INAREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND MOVING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THEDAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING AGOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHTTHROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PLENTY WARM ONTUESDAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS WITH ACLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND A SECONDARYTROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA.THEREFORE...COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTHOF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY ASTHE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL MONDAYAFTERNOON/EVENING AND WAA INCREASED AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ANDSOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUICK TO MOVE OUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THEECMWF BEING A BIT SLOWER. DECIDED TO GO WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HANGON TO HIGH PRECIPITATION LONGER. HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WESTTO EAST STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND LINGERINGSHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURESTUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ORRAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLEDEPENDANT ON GROUND TEMPS AND PRECIP INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT ANYACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT FUTURE SHIFTS SHOULD MONITORTRENDS FOR ANYTHING GREATER THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW.

Friday/Mid Afternoon

Just a quick blog post now until National Weather Services begin to update their forecast, then much more soon...

OK, after the eastward shift in the models yesterday, the models are beginning to track the storm back west.

The latest GFS does have this storm riding the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. Arctic air will be the difference maker in what kind of precipitation we get. Will it be cold enough?

Much more soon...

Thursday/Mid Evening

I have gotten some emails related to my last post.

I said that this storm could rival the December 2004 storm, and I am sticking to that.

As far as amounts during the '04 storm...some areas saw over 30 inches of snow, but it was very localized. We probably will not achieve this amounts, but IF the storm track goes west of the Appalachian Mountains, parts of Kentuckiana would be talking widespread amounts of 10 inches or more of snow. And if some models are right about the cold and wind, some areas could see blizzard like conditions. The models will do their usual flip flop to the east and west the next several days, but this time of year storms tend to trend further west and north as the storm nears closer. An example of this would be last week's potential snow. The GFS model had this storm east 5-6 days before the storm would enter our area, giving us our first potential accumulating snow. Then it trended west 2-3 days before the storm hit. We ended up in a dry slot with heavy rain south and heavy snow north. Once the storm actually enters the west coast, models begin to get a better grip on the actual storm track. In my opinion, this thing goes west of the Apps, but that is a mix of meteorology and me just wanting it to track this way. I am ready for snow as many of you are. I will have more tonight when the new GFS comes out...

Thursday/Mid Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



Ok, so we all know that their is going to be quite a nasty snow/ice storm for either the East Coast or the Midwest next Tuesday and Wednesday. The questions I will be trying to answer the next few days is WHERE? WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION? STORM TRACK? TOTALS?

All of these are up for debate at this time, but what makes weather fun is to speculate, so let's talk computer models...

Preferably I like the GFS, but their are many other models. (NAM, UKMET, ECMWF, EURO, and many more)

If your wanting snow here in the Kentuckiana you want the low pressure system to track over Eastern Kentucky, west off the Appalachian Mountains. The latest 12Z run of the GFS has the storm going east of the Apps with mainly snow here, but most of the plentiful moisture is to our east. If you would like to take a peek at the latest GFS and other models click HERE

We all remember the last potential snow storm last week, and that was forecasted to go to the east, but the models began trending it westward 2-3 days before the storm. It did go west and heavy snow was to our north and heavy rain to our south as we got dry slotted. The low ended up going right over us, which is not good for snow or precipitation for that matter...

THE STORM TRACK WE NEED FOR SNOW



The storm track listed above is where I would like to see the GFS and other models trend the next few days. Personally, after seeing how last week's storm acted, I believe this storm will trend further west than what the GFS depicted in it's latest run.

The latest ECMWF model has a pretty good snowstorm for the region and if this latest model run played out, we would get several inches of snow.

Other models give us rain and others give us rain to ice to snow. This is going to be a very major snow and ice producer for someone. If the storm does track west of the Appalachians, then someone in Kentuckiana would get 10+ inches of snow. I am not saying this is going to happen, but am laying the potential out there. I am in no way hyping this storm, but this has potential to rival the December 2004 storm that dumped over 2 feet of snow in parts of Southern Indiana.

Henry Margusity has even mentioned a BLIZZARD for parts of the Midwest or Ohio Valley...for more on what he is saying CLICK HERE

This storm is going to be very interesting to track over the next several days. Nonetheless somebody, either in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Or East Coast is in for a doozy of a storm and if everything pans out, it may be one for the record books! STAY TUNED! Much more later tonight...

Wednesday/Late Evening

Just a quick update on next week's storm...

The 18Z GFS does have mainly rain here Tuesday ending as a brief period of snow Tuesday night. If the track of the low can track about 150-180 miles to the south, Kentuckiana would be in for a good snowstorm. I will update this tomorrow, but somebody in the Midwest, Great Lakes, or Ohio Valley is going to get pounded. STAY TUNED FOR MORE TOMORROW!

Wednesday/Mid Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Rain changing to snow late tonight***

Still looks like mostly rain changing to a brief period of light snow overnight. The snow shouldn't be to much of a problem on the roadways due to the warmer temperatures today, but of course do be careful tonight as most roadways will be wet.

The weekend clipper doesn't look like to much of a snow maker. The latest 12Z GFS puts this storm system to our north, but it will bring most of Kentuckiana some very light snow Saturday into Saturday night. As of right now, no major accumulation is expected.

UPDATE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM

As I mentioned yesterday, the next potential major storm system to affect the Ohio Valley Region will be next Monday and Tuesday. The 12Z GFS does place colder air over the region, allowing for some of the precipitation to be snow. Let's take a trip through the GFS since this is the most optomistic for snow next week...

(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)

144 hour/Tuesday Morning

On Tuesday morning, precipitation has made it well into the state, but that blue line is the freezing line about 5,000 feet above the surface, and as you can see that is north of us. What that means is mainly rain would be falling Tuesday morning.

150 hour/Tuesday afternoon

Tuesday afternoon, precipitation has overspread the region and some of it is heavy. The blue freezing line is still north of us, so precipitation probably rain, but maybe some sleet beginning to mix in.

156 hour/Late Tuesday afternoon

Later during Tuesday afternoon, the freezing line drops just south of Lousiville. What this would mean is mainly snow for Southern Indiana and a mix along the Ohio River, with rain south of Louisville. Their is still plentiful precipitation left over after the temperature drops below freezing. What that would mean is the first accumulating snow/ice for Southern Indiana and a close call for Northern/Central Kentucky. Again, this is only one computer model, and many are still having trouble putting this storm north or south of the region. If you want snow here in Kentuckiana, typically you want the low to track across Eastern Kentucky, west of the Appalachian Mountains. Personally, I would like to see that freezing line well south, but it's to close for comfort. Obviously this particular computer model will jump all over the place, as well as others, but I will be running through the GFS everyday and other models as we near closer to the storm. I think this does have rather significant winter storm potential somewhere across the Midwest. According to the 12Z run of the GFS, someone would be in for a rather nasty ice storm, ending off with some snow. Something to keep an eye on the next several days, but let's not get to excited yet, as many storms this time of year trend further north giving us mainly rain. Hopefully we will see some computer model agreement over the next several days, and maybe just maybe this one is for Kentuckiana! STAY TUNED!

Tuesday/Early Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



After a dry and rather cold day today, yet another storm system is about to move into the Ohio Valley Region tomorrow with a round of rain and snow.

Let's go through a few models...

Here is the GFS for tomorrow evening

(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)



That blue line is the freezing line about 5,000 feet above the surface. As you can see that line is still north of us by tomorrow evening, so most of the precipitation is rain.

Here is the GFS by tomorrow night



That freezing line is now south of Southern Indiana and just south of the Louisville area, but most of the moisture by this time would have moved well off to our east. All in all this doesn't look like a big snow maker for the region, and if anything, we may see a dusting of snow. Most other models support this solution as well so I will go with rain changing to snow, but with very little accumulation.

Next chance of precipitation will be Saturday/Saturday night with a clipper system moving south out of Canada. We call these "Alberta Clippers", but usually they don't dump very much snow. (Maybe 1-3 inches) In this case, it looks like the clipper will mainly stay to our north with very little snow, but a few snow showers are possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Right now, this doesn't look to be a a measurable snow for Kentuckiana.

BIG STORM WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK

Next major storm system to affect the area will be Monday into Tuesday. Won't bother posting any computer models/maps, as they are all over the place and not in agreement, as expected. Right now most models do swing this storm north, but they are having problems on where the low develops and what will determine the track of the low. If I had to take a poke at this storm system, I would say mainly rain, changing to snow with very minor accumulation, but again this is just a preliminary guess on what is to happen. Computer models will come into better agreement as we near closer to the storm. For now, let's just keep an eye on this storm system and see what it has to offer for the Ohio Valley Region. Much more on this storm in later blog postings...STAY TUNED!

Monday/Mid Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Snow showers may cause slick spots tonight across Kentuckiana***



POST EDITED: Have now included YELLOW alert tonight due to increasing snow showers over Kentucky. Southern Indiana has been dry slotted, and unless it feels in their, most of it will be across Northern Indiana and Kentucky. PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY DUE TO SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ACROSS KENTUCKIANA!

Forecast will be focusing on snow chances throughout the rest of this week into next week...

Well Kentuckiana missed out on the big snows, and some areas didn't even see a dusting. We will still see a few snow flurries and snow showers continuing through tonight.

One difference that is very obvious today is the colder weather. Temperatures have been steady all day in the lower 30's and they will slowly drop off through the middle 20's tonight!

Next system to impact the area will be Wednesday into Thursday. I have been looking at various computer models (GFS, NAM, ECMWF, EURO) and they all indicate rain changing to snow. Temperatures should be warm enough for rain Wednesday and most of Wednesday night. By the time the precip changes over to snow, most of the precipitation should be gone, but nonetheless we will probably see some accumulation on grassy areas. If anything does change, which is very possible, we will update the latest tomorrow...

Were in for a very active period, and yet another storm system will impact the region next Monday/Tuesday

Here is the latest GFS for next Tuesday...



Right now looks like another rain to snow event, but this one excites me a little more than the Wednesday/Thursday system. We'll update this storm as well throughout the week! STAY TUNED!

Sunday/Early Evening

Sorry I haven't posted past few days...been busy with it being the Holiday weekend and all...

Anyways, many of you know that snow is on it's way tonight, but their is some speculation on how much.

Two National Weather Services, which are very close to each other (National Weather Services in Indianapolis, and Louisville) disagree about the amount of snow for South Central Indiana.

NWS IN LOUISVILLE SAYS: A dusting of snow

NWS IN INDIANAPOLIS SAYS: 1-3 inches of snow

There's not many times that I agree with the NWS in Indianapolis, but today I do.

Temperatures are beginning to drop off steadily and are now in the upper 30's, and by 8 or so it should be cold enough for all snow...

Their are two things I see here...

1. The low is really beginning to wrap itself up and in fact it is strengthening as it moves northward.

2. Two pieces of energy, one in Northern Illinois and the other in N/E Missouri and Southern Illinois are beginning to phase. This doesn't mean that two storms are phasing, but two areas of precipitation are beginning to phase together for a broader area of precipitation.

So how much snow?

ANYWHERE NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS: 2-3 inches with localized areas of 4 inches if any lake effect snow bands can form

INDIANAPOLIS and SOUTH TO SEYMOUR: 1-3 inches, the 3 more near Indy, 1-2 more south from their.

SOUTH OF JACKSON, JENNINGS, LAWERENCE: Up to 1 inch of snow

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has consulted issuing a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, and may do so in the evening package. IF and WHEN they do so, I will post the counties that are in the advisory areas and the amounts that are expected! STAY TUNED!

Friday/Late Evening 2

Latest GFS and NAM just dry slotted us. It also moved the storm further north and west...what a disappointment.

Probably will be lowering my snow totals drastically due to the agreement of these models.

Friday/Late Evening

OK everyone this has been the most confusing storm to forecast, but I think the area is in for more snow than what has been forecasted.

Here are a few reason why I think so...

-Gulf Moisture is really beginning feed itself into the Ohio Valley. Most models have had low QPF (Qualitive precipitation forecasts) amounts, but I don't quite by into this. Sometimes models have trouble with the phasing of two storm systems or whether the phasing will occur or not. If models can't depict the track, then it's hard for them to spit out how much moisture will be available.

-Latest NAM does have more moisture wrapped into the system, but it tracks it further west. What that would mean for us is more rain then changing to snow with a slushy inch or two. Illinois would see see the heavier snow amounts, however after all the confusion with models today, I'm just going with my gut feeling on this one.

I believe parts of Southern Indiana, preferably (Jackson, Jennings, Lawerence) will get 2-4 out of this system, and maybe an isolated 5 inch amount.

Further south, more sleet/rain will mix in so amounts will be lower, on the order of 1-3 inches of snow. This is my gut feeling from what I have seen the past several days. I believe more moisture will be available then what models are depicting. We should know more by tonight and I may have to adjust these snow totals, IF models begin to agree on track of system and how much moisture will be available...STAY TUNED!

Friday/Early Afternoon

Just wanted to give a quick update on where we stand for snow accumulation across Kentuckiana...

-New GFS and NAM models came in about 1 hour ago, and their really isn't much of a difference between the both of them. They take the low pretty far north into Southern Ohio. As the low is in Eastern Kentucky...where the heaviest snow would be possible, warmer air will probably keep some of the precipitation rain or sleet.

-Right now this doesn't look like a classic Ohio Valley snowstorm. Instead were looking at a 1-3 inch band of snow across South Central Indiana (Jackson, Jennings, Lawerence). Lesser amounts to the south. Most accumulation will be on grassy areas due to the temperature hovering above 32. Sunday night into Monday we will see wrap around light snow, and this will actually be the better chance for accumulating snow across Kentuckiana. Some slick spots my develop Sunday night into Monday morning...so be careful out their!

-I will update later...hopefully I will be more hopeful than this by that time...

MORE LATER...

Thursday/Late Evening

Ok the new run of the NAM just came in...and it is back to a potential winter storm for Kentuckiana...

Let's take a look



The position of the low is much further north and west than the last NAM model run.

Also the track of the low is in North Eastern Kentucky...I would like this to be a bit further south personally, but still if all panned out 3-6 for Southern Indiana, lesser amounts south, higher amounts north. Just wanted to do a quick update...more soon...



FOR THOSE IN SOUTHERN INDIANA: We want the low to track near Lousiville or E-Town for a heavy snow event.

FOR THOSE IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY: You want the low to track across Southern Kentucky for the heaviest swath of snow...

Right now we get some accumulation with the new NAM, but the heaviest swath would be just to our north. This is subject to change so stay tuned!

Thursday/Mid Evening 2

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***




Ok I have calmed down a bit and I want to wait until tomorrow before I say NO snowstorm for Kentuckiana. Just a few points I want to make...

1. Precipitation in the Plain states is about 6 hours earlier than what was depicted by the computer models. This doesn't have much effect, but just an interesting fact to put out their.

2. Computer models ALL day have pretty much went away from the phasing of two storm systems across Eastern Kentucky, which would give us 6+ inches of snow. And most models have backed off of these two storms systems even phasing together. What this means is we may see some snow, but it will be on a much lighter scale, and we would see some accumulation. (around 1 inch).

3. Let's see what computer models print out tonight into tomorrow before we make any conclusions or write anything in stone here. Computer models always have trouble with phasing two storm systems together, and it's always a possibility that the models are wrong, but it's hard to make a prediction without. Let's wait for tomorrow...who knows, maybe the models will go back to the doomsday snowstorm for the Ohio Valley...STAY TUNED!

Thursday/Mid Evening

I don't have much to say because I am frustrated. After I cool down a bit, I will post a more detailed outlook on why Kentuckiana will not get a huge snowstorm with this Sunday/Monday system.

I get so frustrated...yesterday two key models EURO and GFS had a significant snowstorm for the Ohio Valley, now it looks like the main moisture will be to our north...amazing...more later...

Wednesday/Mid Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



So I just got done reading the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Indianapolis, and it was probably the worst detailed and shortest discussion I have ever had to read. The first potential accumulating snow is on the way and these guys lay back and say hardly anything.

Here is what they said in the beginning of their discussion

YOU COULD ARGUE PROBLEM OF DAY IS SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO DO MUCH ABOUT IT EXCEPT MAINTAIN AWARENESS.

I respect the National Weather Service in Indianapolis and the services they provide to the region, but sometimes I just get frustrated with them...

Sorry for ranting...back to the weather.

We have a very interesting situation beginning to transpire for the weekend and into early next week. The first accumulating snow of the season looks very likely Sunday, Monday, into Tuesday and one of the models is actually beginning to take on the idea of a snowstorm.

Let's run through a few computer models and then discuss more from there...

Below is the latest GFS for Tuesday. The reason I show this to you is so you can see how wrapped up the low is and where the track of the storm is.

(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)



As you can tell the low is in Eastern Kentucky, but the temperature is a few degrees about 32. However, thermal profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere should be cold enough for mostly snow across a majority of Southern Indiana. As you go further south across Northern and Central Kentucky, sleet and some rain may mix in, which would cut down on snow totals. Again this analysis is coming from the latest run from the GFS...other models offer different solutions.

Again this system will be already pulling in some moisture Sunday, but the main shield of precip would evolve Sunday night into Monday.

The latest run from the GFS has quite a bit of more moisture available then previous runs. The National Weather Service in Louisville explains this...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS BY FAR THE MOST TRICKY PERIOD. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS COME IN QUITE ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A CLOSED LOW AND LARGE...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN THE THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGING THE LOW OVER KENTUCKY. THIS SETUP WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. I BELIEVE THAT THE GFS GENERATING STRONG CYCLOGENISIS MAY BE OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT IN A TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER. WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT DID ADJUST POPS SOME DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD TO REFLECT THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE GFS TREND CONTINUES TO COME IN WETTER AND MORE SOUTHERLY IN ITS TRACK WITH THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLY ALL SNOW FOR SHORT TIMES AND THE WEATHER GRIDS REFLECT THIS.

What I don't get in this discussion is he says wetter, but then mentions ALL snow or RAIN/SNOW mix...someone is trying to beat around the bush in my opinion.

Other models such as the Canadian models, and ECMWF as mentioned above do go for a more northerly track with more of the moisture being pulled to the north across Central Indiana.

MY ANALYSIS: After looking at the 12z run of the GFS, I have had trouble seeing this solution, because many of the storms this time of year trend further north, however that is just a statistic. Either way, north or south, someone across Kentuckiana is going to get a accumulating snow, and right now it looks that the better potential is across South Central and Central Indiana. This doesn't at all exclude areas across extreme Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. This storm is still several days away and will need to be monitored closely as we near closer to Sunday and Monday. STAY TUNED!

Wednesday/Late Morning

Just got done looking at a couple of model runs for this weekend and for Monday and Tuesday. We could have our first accumulating snow on the way for Saturday night into Sunday. Models weren't picking up very well a couple of days ago on this potential weekend system, and I almost gave up on it, but once again it is back! We will talk much more specifics and go through a few models later this afternoon. We will also discuss the potential for more snow Monday into Tuesday...STAY TUNED!

Tuesday/Early Evening

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***

After a chilly day today, a warm up is on the way and right in time for Thanksgiving!

THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST

HIGHS: LOWER TO MID 50's REGION WIDE

LOWS: LOWER TO MID 30's REGION WIDE

I have several Thanksgiving dinners to go to and I have been trying to save some room in my stomach, but haven't been doing very well!! It seems as I near Thanksgiving, I think about the Thanksgiving food and it makes me more hungry right before the holiday, so I eat more! Go figure...

Back to the weather now...the weekend system still has potential, but not to much. Looks like the cold dome of air ushering in from the north will suppress the storm system to our south. What this means for us is a rather dry weekend, but stay tuned...still some time for the models to change.

I am keeping an eye on another southern sytem, that may just bring some snow in here next Monday or Tuesday. Still to far out to talk specifics, but stay tuned!

Tuesday/Early Morning

After getting excited yesterday, models have took a shift on the weekend storm.

A dome of high pressure may suppress the storm to our south for the weekend, and the way it looks now, little or no precipitation may fall.

Even though the storm doesn't look like a big snow/rain/ice maker right now...it will be something to keep an eye on, as the storm is still several days away.

Monday/Late Evening

Some excitement beginning to build in me...

Most computer models are now trending further north with the weekend system...parts of the area look to be in for the first winter storm of the year. Much more tomorrow...

Monday/Mid Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Wet roads and a few snow showers tonight***



Well it is Monday, and we have alot going on in the weather department. After a decent soaking today, all eyes are on the weekend and the potential first winter storm for the Ohio Valley Region. This is a tough storm and models still haven't come into agreement as to where the low will track. What is positive, is that their will be a storm, but how much moisture will it have and how far north will the precipitation go?

Let's discuss a few models

Here is the GFS. This brings much of the moisture to our south and we would only recieve a few snow flurries if this model would verify.

(GFS MODEL) HOUR 102



Can't seem to get the EURO model posted on here...however it brings the low into Far South Eastern Kentucky...this would be much better for snow/ice here. Other models show the system going well south with little or no precipitation, and others have mostly rain. I will keep an eye on this system as we near closer...STAY TUNED...

Sunday/Late Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Moderate to at sometimes heavy rain tonight into tomorrow***



Few points to make here before we start the new work week. Since it is Sunday...short post for today...I will go more in depth tomorrow.

-First off moderate to heavy rain will overspread Kentuckiana tonight, and it may end off as a little light snow flurry activity tomorrow afternoon. No snow accumulation is expected, however a few slick spots could develop if we see a burst of heavier snow flurry/showers. Rainfall totals will be in the half of an inch to an inch range. Good soaking expected across the entire region.

-Now that I have this weekends storm figured out...I can talk about it a little. Their is two storm systems that have the potential to become our first winter storm of the year. I'll just talk about this upcoming weekend for now.

Models have been everywhere, but most of them do show a storm, which is good! Models also agree plentiful moisture will be available from the Gulf of Mexico. What this does mean is whoever get's snow/ice, it could be a rather large amount (4-6+). Depending on the track of the storm will determine where the snow/ice/and rain set-up. If we want heavy snow here, look for the low to track into Eastern Kentucky!

The latest GFS has it cutting through Central Georgia and Alabama. This would put most of the moisture to our south! However, this is not set in stone and the computer models will vary day by day until the storm system is nearly here. Let's hope for a more north and northeasterly track...

(CLICK ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)

Henry Margusity from ACCUWEATHER has Louisville on north in the snow band this upcoming weekend, and the rest of Kentucky in a mix of precipitation! Let's hope this all pans out...STAY TUNED SNOW LOVERS!

Saturday/Late Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



After a quite weather pattern so far, things are about to get quite interesting across the Ohio Valley Region. First storm I am focusing on is the one Sunday night into Monday. There is not much moisture to work with, and the precipitation should be in the form of all rain. Their may be a mix along and north of I-70, but ground accumulation will be very light due to the temperature hovering around 32.

The second storm I am now confused about. There is supposed to be a storm this upcoming weekend. The potential winter storm I was speaking of I thought was this weekend, but could be the weekend after or both. I am not sure. Until I see the models and figure things out I am just going to hold off on talking about it for now...

More later...

Saturday/Early Afternoon

Few quick things here...have to get back to work.

-Two storms to keep an eye on for this upcoming week

First storm will be Sunday night into Monday. Very light to moderate rain will overspread the area Sunday night into Monday. This may end off as a few snow flurries Monday morning.

Second storm will move in right after Thanksgiving, and this does have the potential to be the first winter storm of the year. More on this later...

Friday/Early Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW...TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT

Cold temperatures will dominate the area tonight as we are planted right under a high pressure system. With clear skies expected all across Kentuckiana, temperatures will drop into the upper teens, and a few spots into the middle teens.

CPC (Climate Prediction Center) released their winter outlook yesterday, but I have to say...DO NOT bet your bottom on this forecast. If you would like to take a look at what they have to say... click HERE

We may see a little rain/snow Sunday night into Monday, but moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be very limited.

In the long term, cold weather looks to be setting in for December, and just down right frigid by Mid December. As for snow, their seems to be a pretty decent storm setting up in about two weeks. I'll keep an eye on it and keep you updated. This storm would be the one to lock the cold and frigid weather in for quite a while.

More later...