Very active weather pattern will continue across the Midwest and Ohio Valley Region with three storm systems making a bullseye right toward the region Thursday/Friday, Saturday/Sunday, and for Christmas. I am going to break these down 1 by 1 below.
STORM 1: Thursday/Friday
The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has posted WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES and WINTER STORM WATCHES (Map below) for Central and North Central Indiana. A powerful storm system will enter the region tomorrow afternoon and precipitation will overrun the front tomorrow evening. Areas that are under the winter weather advisories and winter storm watches can expect ice accumulation of .10-.25. This can cause very slick areas on roadways...so be careful! A few places across South Central Indiana, preferably Jackson, Jennings, and Lawerence may start off as freezing rain, but change to rain very quickly. Areas south of these counties will stay all rain through the entire storm system. Some of the rain could be fairly heavy Thursday night, so please take your time driving!
(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)
STORM 2: Saturday night/Sunday
Another storm system will enter the region Saturday night into Sunday. Most areas across extreme Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky should remain warm enough for all rain overnight Saturday, but precipitation may end as some snow on Sunday. Again areas across South Central Indiana may be cold enough Saturday night for rain to change to snow. Some accumulation is possible, so this is something I will continue to keep an eye on! STAY TUNED!
STORM 3: Christmas Snowstorm?
Could this be the old saying..."The third time is a charm". Well this Christmas storm does have rather significant potential to whiten up things for Christmas Eve into Christmas day.
Let's run through the latest on this POTENTIAL Christmas snowstorm...
Henry Margusity from ACCUWEATHER has made a map for this storm...
The National Weather Service in Louisville is already mentioning this storm as well...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA ON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY FAIRLY COLD SO MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN STORE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL TIMES JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS.
Here is the 12Z run of the GFS
(HOUR 156-Christmas Eve morning)
Storm begins to develop in the Plain States
HOUR 162-Christmas Eve afternoon
Storm really begins to crank. Moisture widespread across the region with the cold air locked in!
Hour 168-Christmas Eve: Evening Hours
Storm in perfect postion for Ohio Valley snowstorm. Low nicely wrapped up and plentiful moisture across the entire region.
Hour 174-Late Evening: Christmas Eve
Storm continues with heavy snow
Hour 180-Early Christmas Day
Low wraps up and moves east. Wrap around snow continues...
IF this model were to pan out, were talking 10+ inches of snow across Southern Indiana with a little less across Northern Kentucky due to some ice mixing in. Again I am just throwing this out here for comments and forecasts from you. I love to speculate about snowstorms in the long term, and this one will be even more interesting to talk about since its for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Again, it's not even set in stone that we will see snow on Christmas, but the potential is beginning to increase for a white Christmas...STAY TUNED!
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2 comments:
Pat, I'd still like to see that cold air arrive a little sooner in Hrs 162, 168, and 174 on the GFS. But this is still days away. I hope it doesnt take the dreaded northward trend like usual with the GFS. But you know, with it being the 3rd storm in succession, these lows tend to push the succeeding lows further and further south. I thin we'll be white on XMAS.
n nJohn Belski seems to think that this storm may be the charm.
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