Friday/Very Late Evening

OK this is it for tonight, but much more tomorrow.

Here is the latest GFS

(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)

Hour 96-Low is well west of the APPS. This is about 25-30 miles east of the 18Z run of the GFS. East is good, because this brings the colder air in quicker.



Hour 102-By hour 102 the Low is nearly right on top of Louisville which isn't to good for snow/ice for Kentuckiana.



Right now the issue is, how much cold air will be wrapped in with this system? With the very strong storm system the GFS is forecasting, I just don't see how cold air could not, eventually be wrapped into the storm system, still with plentiful moisture left to move through the region. Right now the NAM/GFS have been trending further west all day, as well as other models. I, personally am not buying the warm air that is being forecast by some of these computer models. I just don't see how you can have such a strong storm system, and not have cold air immediately wrapped into it. Right now, if models are correct, this would mainly be a rain event for the Ohio Valley, changing to a brief period of snow. I am not buying into this solution yet, so let's wait for some more model runs tonight and tomorrow and beyond before we start making conclusions about where the storm will go and how much cold air will be available. I will have much more tomorrow, but for now...just not buying the warm air the models are showing...STAY TUNED!