Tuesday/Mid Afternoon

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are beginning to move into our region. The steadier heavier rain will arrive early this evening and last for a good portion of the night time hours...

Later tonight I will talk about the potential for some severe weather Thursday, and a couple of systems next week may bring us some snow and or rain. Winter isn't giving up yet...stay tuned!

NEXT POSTING: Around 10 or 11 P.M.

Monday/Early Evening

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



First off, if Fargo, North Dakota hasn't endured enough already with the flooding, a blizzard is pounding the area now, and will last through tomorrow. Here is their forecast for tonight through tomorrow...

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM CDT TUESDAY. AN EARLY SPRING SNOW STORM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS.

For more on the flooding situation their click... HERE

OK, now for our weather...

I hope everyone enjoyed the weather today, because showers and thunderstorms will move back into the region tomorrow night. Most of tomorrow should be dry, and the warmer weather will continue. Temperatures before the rain arrives will range from middle 60's (in Southern Indiana) to upper 60's (Kentucky). So all in all, if you have plans in the morning and afternoon, only an isolated shower is possible. The heavier rain and possibly a thunderstorm will arrive between 6 and 8 tomorrow evening. The rain should last through most of tomorrow night.

On Wednesday, temperatures will be cooler, but not bitterly cold. We will only see temps drop about 10 degrees into the upper 50's, which is below normal for this time of year.

On Thursday a more vigorous system will make it's way toward Kentuckiana. Right now it looks to bring non-severe thunderstorms to the area, but IF a more westward and northward track can be realized...the severe weather threat will increase. The 4-8 day SPC outlook map is below...right now they are forecasting the severe weather to stay south of us...

SPC 4-8 day outlook



I am now doing weather updates on TWITTER... www.twitter.com/patricksumner please continue to have your fellow tweets follow me. I would like to have more followers...I only have 8...thanks

I am also on FACEBOOK...when searching for me...type PATRICK SUMNER and I am the one with the gray photo below... Everyone have a God blessed night!!

Monday/Mid Afternoon

Two tornadoes have been confirmed in Union and Henderson counties in W. Kentucky. For more on what they were rated, what the radar looked like, and damage photos click... HERE

It is a great day to be outside with temperatures in the lower 60's and sunny skies. Enjoy, because the showers and thunderstorms will return tomorrow. Tune in for the next blog posting later this evening...

Sunday/Mid Evening

Sorry no updates today...Kind of taking a break after the active weather yesterday...

Don't forget to follow me on TWITTER... www.twitter.com/patricksumner

Also add me as a friend on FACEBOOK... SEARCH PATRICK SUMNER and I am the one with the gray picture below...



Active weather week coming up. Several storm systems will cross through the region, and one of those may bring us some severe weather. As always I will keep you updated on here and on TWITTER. I really like TWITTER and I think I'm getting addicted to it. So, sign up and follow! I will have much more tomorrow on severe weather chances and a slight warm up. Everyone have a safe and God blessed night!

Saturday/Late Evening

Tornadoes have been confirmed in Corydon, KY and Grayson county, Kentucky. John Belski from WAVE 3 will have damage of the Corydon, KY tornado...tune in for that.

Their were various reports of funnels near Owensboro and Evansville. Lot's of damage in Tennessee as well with suspected tornado touchdowns.

I am on TWITTER and FACEBOOK...

Follow me on TWITTER and add me as a friend on FACEBOOK. More details below...

- www.twitter.com/patricksumner ...I believe you have to be signed up to follow but you can still see my updates by clicking on the website address above.

-Add me on FACEBOOK as well. Type in PATRICK SUMNER when searching and I am the one with the gray photo below...

Saturday/Early Evening

I am updating frequently on TWITTER right now... go to www.twitter.com/patricksumner for the latest on the severe weather...

Friday/Late Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Light rain moving in...will last for 1-3 hours***

Before we start on weather, let's talk facebook and twitter. Meteorologists and weather forecasters are taking advantage of the internet, and I am too. I just signed up for TWITTER, and you can now follow the latest updates from me using the internet address below. If you are a part of TWITTER...become one of my followers to get the latest Kentuckiana weather information.

- www.twitter.com/patricksumner

-I am also on facebook. Type in PATRICK SUMNER on the search for friends engine and I will be the one with the gray picture below.

Ok, now for the weather...

Focus is obviously on potential severe weather event tomorrow afternoon and evening...

The latest SPC maps are below. Those that have been placed in the 45% risk area (Southeastern states) will have the best potential for a widespread tornado outbreak tomorrow. Southern portions of our viewing area including Louisville have been placed in the 30% risk area with a 15% risk area across Southern Indiana. Again, as mentioned yesterday, several factors are coming together for at least some type of severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening. Their are a couple of limiting factors, and this includes instability and potential convective boundaries that would hamper any sunshine coming out. IF we do get any sunshine tomorrow, our severe weather chances will increase substantially as instability would be increased as well. All in all, it's a wait and see situation beginning tomorrow morning. Storms that do develop will have the potential to produce large hail, straight line winds, and even a few isolated tornadoes especially along and south of the Ohio River. Areas further north across Central Indiana and Ohio can still expect some isolated severe weather with the powerful cold front slamming into the area between 4 and 7 PM tomorrow. Temperatures will cool down significantly Sunday with highs in the middle 40's region wide. Some areas actually may see some light snow or sleet to start their Sunday morning. I will have more this evening if anything is new...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

PROBABILITY RISK

Thursday/Late Evening

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***

Focus will be on potential for severe weather outbreak Saturday...

It ended up being a rather nice day across all of Kentuckiana as this mornings system pushed off to the east. Temperatures rebounded into the lower 60's north and middle 60's south.

Tomorrow will be a rather damp and cloudy day. Skies will start off cloudy in the morning, then as the next system begins to churn in the Plain States, isolated showers will develop, but they will be few and far between. Highs tomorrow won't warm above todays temps, because of the clouds and isolated rain showers. Highs will range from the lower 60's north with middle 60's south.

As we experience rather calm conditions tomorrow, a severe weather outbreak will be in full swing across the southern states. In fact, as you can see below, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Northern Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas, Southwest Tennessee, and Northern Alabama in a MODERATE RISK for severe weather. The best threat for tornadoes will be in the 45% hatched area with widespread damaging winds outside of that. Their may be some isolated severe weather across our southern viewing area tomorrow (Southern/Central Kentucky) so this is something we will have to watch as things begin to pop tomorrow afternoon and evening. Any storms that do develop tomorrow south of the Ohio River will have the potential to produce large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Those of you that live in the south, please monitor the weather situation tomorrow afternoon and evening. This looks to be the largest tornado outbreak we have seen so far this year.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Friday

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK-Friday

This whole system has it's eyes set on the Kentuckiana region, and will have the potential to spark yet another severe weather outbreak Saturday afternoon and evening. Below you will see the latest DAY 3 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. We have been highlighted in the 30% risk which is a high level SLIGHT RISK. Lot's of important factors are coming together for a large scale severe weather event. This includes the VERY IMPRESSIVE wind fields that will be present along with the strength of the low (990 MB). Things that are working against severe weather, especially in Southern Indiana is the placement of the warm front and the low. The further south the storm tracks, the further south the instability will be. However, the latest model runs have began to place the center of the storm slightly north and to the west. What this would mean is an increased threat of severe weather for a good chunk of the region. Right now I would place the best threat for severe weather including a few strong tornadoes from Southeastern Indiana, south and east from their into Eastern Kentucky and Southwestern Ohio. If the latest model analysis is correct, areas north of this will also have the potential for widespread severe weather as well. All in all, a nasty severe weather event looks likely. We will have to continue to monitor the placement of the warm front as we may see a few tornadoes (some strong) along this boundary. Areas further north (South Central/Central Indiana, Central Ohio) will see AT LEAST some isolated severe weather as the cold front crosses the state by mid-afternoon on Saturday. I will have much more tomorrow. The next SPC update will be out very early tomorrow morning...stay tuned!

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Saturday

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK-Saturday

Wednesday/Early Morning

Sorry I haven't posted in a few days...I have been very busy with school and church.

Wanted my main focus to be on the Friday/Friday night event which may end up being a nasty severe weather event across a good chunk of the Central and South Central United States.

I am having some trouble uploading photos on this computer so if you want to take a look at the latest DAY 3 outlook from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) click...HERE

In a nutshell there is a classic severe weather setup that is taking place, including the potential for long lived and long track tornadoes. The SPC has highlighted the southern portion of the area (Central/Southern Kentucky) in the SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. The key limiting factor for our area is the position of the low and if we make it into the warm sector or not. Several forecast computer models have began to shunt this storm system further north which would place us in the warm sector, thus a better chance for a severe weather outbreak across the Kentuckiana region. Obviously, time will tell, but the threat is beginning to increase for a rather organized severe weather event across some portion of the region Friday into Friday night.

I won't have much time to update tonight, so if not, I will post tomorrow evening.

Friday/Mid Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



Focus will be on severe weather potential and warm up next week...

It is another sunny, but cooler day across Kentuckiana with temperatures in Southern Indiana in the lower 50's with middle 50's across Northern and Central Kentucky. If your looking to go fishing or hiking...this will be a great weekend to do so. Temperatures tomorrow will warm into the middle 50's north and the upper 50's south. Even warmer for Sunday with temperatures topping out in the lower 60's.

This will be the start of a nice warm up as the jet stream begins to lift north beginning tomorrow. By Monday we will be in the warm sector as a storm system really get's cranking over the Central Plain States. This will be the beginning of what could be a 2-3 day severe weather outbreak.

As you can see below the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has placed a good chunk of the Central Plains and the Ozarks in a 30% risk for DAY 4 (Monday) and DAY 5 (Tuesday). Usually, when the SPC puts a risk out this far in advance...a nasty outbreak of severe weather is expected. And, looking at the latest computer models, I can see why the risk is warranted.



The latest satellite imagery below is just now beginning to show the storm system. As you can see, there are two spinning vortices. The first one you see to the northwest of California...that is the storm system that will affect us by Midweek. The other storm system in the far northwestern part of the satellite image will play a role in our weather by late next week.



DISCUSSION: The first two rounds of severe weather will be to our west (Monday and Tuesday). The cold front will then slide through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. So our first shot at any severe weather will be late Tuesday night and potentially Wednesday afternoon, depending on the position of the front. Their are several ingredients that are pointing toward severe weather, but others against. The potential for severe weather will be increased Tuesday night and Wednesday due to the following...1) The intensity of the front...2) Very strong wind fields that are present in several computer models...3) The amount of energy is obviously off the charts with the strength of the low. Their are however a few things working against the potential for severe weather...1) Thunderstorms to the south may rob us from encountering the rich/unstable moisture...2) The timing of the storms looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, which would limit instability. However, the GFS has slowed the progression of the frontal passage until Wednesday afternoon, which would further increase the potential for severe weather.

MY CURRENT ANALYSIS: Severe weather is just like predicting snow, if not even more difficult. Several ingredients can be there for severe weather, but sometimes if your missing even 1...the severe weather does not materialize. As meteorologists/weather forecasters...we look for several ingredients and we look at the upper air features. After looking at all of this I would say we will have at least some isolated severe weather beginning Tuesday night and lasting through Wednesday afternoon. The coverage of the severe weather will be increased IF computer models begin to slow down the progression of the front. This would allow the front to pass through Wednesday afternoon...a time in which the atmosphere will be volitale. We will also have to monitor the coverage/severity of storms to our south. If storms blossom there, which I expect...that may also limit the coverage of severe weather here. Any severe weather that does develop will have the potential to produce damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. I will continue to monitor the situation over the next few days, and have more for you as we get closer to the actual event. Please continue to listen to your local media stations as well as updates from the National Weather Service. Everyone have a safe and God blessed day!

Friday/Late Afternoon

I just wanted to let you guys know that I will be having a in-depth posting later this evening on the potential for a severe weather outbreak sometime mid to late next week.

We have several factors working for us, and a few key factors working against severe weather. We will talk about what the set-up looks like FOR NOW, and discuss ANOTHER nice warm up that is on the way! STAY TUNED!

Wednesday/Early Afternoon

If your reading this...you should be outside! Beautiful weather continues across Kentuckiana, with temperatures topping out in the lower and middle 70's with sunny skies! I am going to get out their and enjoy it myself! Everyone have a great afternoon! I will post later tonight, but really not to much to talk about...I'll try and have some fun and interesting facts on tonight's posting...stay tuned!

Sunday/Late Morning

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



I will take the forecast day by day since we don't have to much going on...

Clouds are beginning to set in across Southern Indiana after a rather sunny morning. Temperatures today will top out in the middle and upper 50's and we will remain under the high to mid level clouds most of the afternoon...there may peeks of sunshine throughout the day.

Since we are in one of those rather "boring" periods of weather, which don't happen often across the Ohio Valley Region, I will talk about the change in my college plans.

I was accepted to Vincennes University a couple of months ago, and visited the campus several weeks ago. I did not like what I saw, especially the town itself. It was even more dry then the city I reside in (Seymour). It wasn't a bad school, and it looks to have plenty to offer, but it does not have a major or minor in broadcast meteorology. It only has a degree in broadcasting, so I have now opted out of going to VU.

I have applied to Ball State University which is in Muncie, Indiana. I am still waiting on a letter of acceptance or no acceptance. I have heard they have alot to offer and I believe I do as well. My grades throughout high school are not great. This is because of 2 things...1) Not knowing that this would affect my entire future...2) It was hard for me to self motivate myself, because I didn't think I was achieving anything. Well now I am beginning to realize that high school plays a HUGE part in determining your future, especially college. Sadly, many high school students are very smart, but don't have the grades to show it, so they kind of get the heeve-ho. Hopefully, I will not be one of those students, because I believe I have alot to offer in the forecasting of the ever changing weather that occurs across the United States. Math is not my strongest subject, but I am willing to learn to obtain the dream I have had my eyes on since I was 4 years old. Although not a math geek, I have the ability of understanding the weather and it's parameters. Hopefully Ball State will give me the opportunity to prove myself...I will not disappoint!

Everyone have a God blessed day!

Friday/Early Evening

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



First off just a few things here...

As many of you know the Central part of the United States is changing its new hail criterion beginning April 1st. To hear more about this click HERE

Also many of us have heard about the New Madrid Fault zone. It was the cause of the change in course of the Mississippi River in 1811 and 1812.



Many scientists have predicted another major quake in the next 50 years, but a new study by Purdue University released today suggests it may be "shutting down". For more on this click HERE

Now for the weather...

In all reality, we have a pretty boring period of weather setting up for the next several days, but I think we all need a reprieve after the recent chaos in the last few months. A very seasonable day today across Kentuckiana with sunny skies and temperatures hovering in the middle 50's with some places south of the river topping out at 60. There is a very slight chance for a shower tonight as a weak frontal boundary moves through the region. A warm up is on the way beginning tomorrow and lasting through the middle of next week. Temperatures tomorrow will approach 60 again, and we may be looking at 70 by Tuesday and Wednesday. After Wednesday, a weak cold front will slide through the area with little precipitation, but temperatures will drop slightly into the middle and upper 50's for the remainder of the work week. Since we are dealing with a rather quiet period of weather, I will try and have some fun and interesting stuff on the blog tomorrow. Everyone have a safe night!

Thursday/Late Evening

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Snow just to the south of Louisville***



Some changes in the weather tonight, so we will have more about the warm-up tomorrow...

The WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY that was previously well south of the region continues to be extended further north. Areas just south of Louisville have now been included. Louisville and the southern Indiana counties are NOT included in this advisory. Their will be a very sharp cut off with the band of accumulating snow. Those south of Louisville will have the potential for 1-3 inches of snow, and we are already getting several reports of 1-2 inch amounts. With temperatures dropping below freezing later tonight, roads will become slick for those that do recieve snow. I have included a YELLOW weather alert light, but this is for those that are south of Louisville. Areas from Louisville on north should be fine tonight with little or no snow accumulation. Again for those south of Louisville, please be careful if traveling tonight into tomorrow morning...roads will be slick! Everyone have a safe and God blessed night!

Thursday/Early Evening

This won't be my complete in-depth posting...that will be later tonight.

Snow is breaking out just about 30-60 miles south of Louisville. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for Southern/Southeastern Kentucky. These areas may see up to 1 inch of snow with a few isolated areas seeing 2 inches. This should not have much of an effect for those that live across Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky, but a few snow flurries will be possible overnight.

Another warm up is on the way...will it get as warm as earlier this week? Well I will have all of that and more later this evening...stay tuned!

Tuesday/Late Evening

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Thunderstorms (some severe) overnight***



The SPC has now included most of Southern Indiana in the SLIGHT RISK for severe weather for the overnight hours.



A line of storms is approaching Western Indiana and Western Kentucky, and the line is beginning to intensify. A MSD (Mesoscale Discussion) has been prompted by the SPC, but they DO NOT plan on issuing a watch. I still expect a few isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts and the potential for some large hail. These storms will arrive in Kentuckiana between 12 and 3 AM tonight. If you have a NOAA weather radio, please turn it on overnight. Several lives could have been saved in the past with the purchase of this rather cheap device. Everyone have a good night and be careful if you plan on heading out overnight!

Monday/Late Evening

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Rain and thunderstorms possible across the south and likely across the north TONIGHT into TOMORROW***

OK, last update of the night and then it's off to bed.



The latest SPC outlook for tomorrow is below. Not expecting to much severe weather tomorrow, however I still expect the slight risk area to be placed further east in the morning. Reasoning for this is the very strong dynamic wind fields, which tend to overcome the lack of instability, usually. If we do see any severe weather tomorrow, it will not be widespread, because of the two following factors, which go hand and hand. 1) Storms are coming in at a bad time for severe (late evening) 2) Due to the timing of the storms, instability will be lacking. So, all in all this looks to be a heavy rain event with isolated thunderstorms (potentially severe) with the main threats being damaging winds, and small hail.



Significant flooding is forecasted across the Wabash and Tippecanoe Rivers...for more on this click HERE

Have a good night everyone!

Monday/Early Afternoon

Hey guys! Sorry I haven't updated in a while, but I have been very busy with getting college stuff figured out etc...

Anyhow, a very nice round of severe weather yesterday. The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has completed it's damage survey in Lawerence County...for more on that click HERE

I live in Seymour, and saw several funnels, none of which touched down. The Jackson County Emergency Management office is offering a severe weather spotter class today. The address and time is below...

7 p.m. today at Jackson County Education Center, 1000 S. Poplar St. in Seymour.

I am having trouble posting the latest SPC maps on this computer, however not much of a change from earlier this morning. We are still in the 5% area, which isn't even considered a slight risk. I am not seeing many limiting factors tomorrow, except marginal instability due to earlier convection. I expect the SPC to place our area under a slight risk tomorrow, with the potential for a moderate risk out west in Central Illinois. The wind fields are looking beautiful on the latest model analysis. Again the only limiting factor is the instability, and this is why the SPC is holding back. I will keep an eye on things and have more for you late this afternoon! STAY TUNED!