OK, here is the deal.
The models are doing an awful job at determining the amount of cold air that catches up to the precipitation.
I think most of Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky will see a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY situation tomorrow, but would not be suprised to see places like Jackson, Jennings, and Lawerence counties placed under a WINTER STORM WARNING. I still think their is going to be good glazing of ice along with 1-2 inches of snow and sleet. Lot's of forecasters are downplaying this storm system, but I am not buying the GFS at this point. The GFS has hardly any post frontal precipitation with mainly rain for the entire region, and again I don't buy that. I am basing my forecast off the latest run of the NAM which has the cold air in quicker with more post frontal precipitation.
Current thinking is about a quarter inch of ice across far Northern Kentucky with lesser amounts south. Their may be some snow after the icing, but not to much in the way of accumulation.
Across Southern Indiana, their will be more problems. Looks to be around one quarter inch of ice with snow and sleet accumulation of 1-2 inches after the initial glazing of ice. Advisories and potential warnings will be posted tomorrow. Hazardous driving conditions will develop Monday night and travel Tuesday morning will become very difficult. STAY TUNED!
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4 comments:
i looks to me like the worst icing will be south of here...like around louisville
Boy Crow hurts doesn't it?
Patrick....you do a great job my friend....I dont want to sound like an ass or be too critical but you wishcast a little too much. Also I've seen where you post numerous questions on Belski's site wanting to know about the Seymour area. Let it rest man and look at the satellite and radar loops to detirmine what you'll think you'll get ....I think the reason you didnt like the models you mentioned in this post is because they didnt show what you wanted to see....not because you saw something they may have missed. Anyway...you do a great job and keep up the good work. Oh, one thing else....just because you're not getting the big snow in your area...continue to post on your blog. I see you havent posted since Sunday. Dont be like Henry Margusity...LOL...keep your chin up...you'll get the big storm this year.
Anonymous...Please post your name. I would like to know who you are lol. And I ask John to see what his opinion is. I do not base my forecast off of his opinion. I base my forecasts off of computer models and sometimes just gut instinct. Everyone obviously wishcasted last night. Many stations were saying 2-4 inches of snow across Southern Indiana and N. Kentucky. Lot's of places did not recieve this amount. I was not the only one to get this wrong. Thanks for the encouragement and I hope you continue to visit the blog...PS
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