Sunday/Late Afternoon

Sorry I haven't posted for sometime. I was on my Christmas vacation. I believe that Christmas time is for remembering what Jesus did for us the day he died on the cross, thus I took the break to remember His sacrifice.

This will also be my last post until Thursday. I am taking a trip to Alabama and won't be back until Thursday afternoon...right in time for the first potential winter storm of the year across Kentuckiana.

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



After a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms, the cooler weather has returned across much of Kentuckiana. Wind gusts last night as the front sweeped through registered 60 MPH in some areas. Their were reports of scattered trees down throughout the region.

Temperatures will begin to warm once again tomorrow after a brief cool down today. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will top out in the lower and middle 50's with lows in the lower 30's both nights. A rather potent, but dry cold front will slide through the state Tuesday. This will drop temperatures temperatures into the middle 30's for highs Wednesday into New Year's Day.

POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

The cold front Tuesday will lock the cold air in right in time for a storm system to affect the region Thursday night into Friday. Fairly potent low will track across E. Tennessee/S.E. Kentucky Friday morning. Precipitation should begin Thursday night and will be in the form of all snow if models verify. Friday the Gulf of Mexico will be wide open for business as the low pulls north into the colder air. Widespread precipitation should overspread the region Friday morning and continue through Friday Evening. Right now based on the latest model runs, most of the precipitation should be in the form of snow except across Eastern Kentucky where a rain/snow mix looks plausible due to the close proximity of the low. Right now models are depicting the heaviest QPF (Qualitive Precipitation Forecast) to be planted right across the Kentuckiana region. If models continue to support all snow...we could be looking at several inches of the white stuff (6 inches+) on the ground by Saturday morning. This storm system may have significant impacts on the region, due to the travel antcipated on New Year's day and Friday as people return from their holiday destinations. Please stay tuned to your local TV stations and your National Weather Service for the latest weather information.

Here is what the National Weather Service in Louisville is saying: FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD ON THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME FRAME. 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND 00Z RUN OF THE EURO PLACE A DIGGING UPR LEVEL TROF ACRS THE UPR/MID MS VLY AT 12Z FRI AND MOVE IT ACRS OUR FA FRI/FRI EVE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY THU IN WAA PATTERN/RETURN FLO WITH HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATL COASTAND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VLY TO LOW PRES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS. GFS DEEPENS MOISTURE RAPIDLY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW MOVES ACRS THE WRN GULF STATES THEN TRACKS INTO ECNTRL TN BY 12Z FRI. THIS LOW TRACK WOULD FAVOR SNOW FOR MUCH OF OUR FA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OUR SRN/ERN AREAS WHERE BNDRY LAYER/LOW LEVELS FAVOR RAIN...OR SNOW GOING TO RAIN AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE EURO IS LESS AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY WITH ITS SFC FEATURES...WITH WEAK LOW PRES ACRS THE LA/MSGULF COAST AND CONSIDERABLY LESS QPF. PRECIP TYPE WOULD GO TO ALL SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF CDFNT FRI. NEW MEX GUID DROPS FRI MAXS ABOUT 5 DEGS FROM PREVIOUS RUN ACRS THE WRN HALF OF OUR FA...INDICATIVE OF LOW TRACK INTO E/SE KY. ITAPPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT BEHIND SYS...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NE FA...INCLUDING THE BLUEGRASS REGION. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE NEW EURO/ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS LATEST GFS RUN. IF SO...BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF GFS QPF GIVEN (-.40 N ANDABOUT 1.00 S) A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE DAY WED FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL UP POPS A BIT FOR THAT PERIOD AND INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW/LOWER TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEGS FROM PREV FCST FOR FRI.

Here is what the National Weather Service in Indianapolis is saying: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW AND BOTH HAVE ALSO CONSISTENTLY BEEN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. THIS IS STILL DAY 5/6 TIME FRAME SO THINGS COULD CHANGE HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN VERY DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

Again I will NOT be posting until Thursday afternoon and by then the storm will be very close to the region.

For updates please refer to the links below

LINK-National Weather Service

LINK-John Belski's weather blog