Friday/Late Afternoon

Storm has been trending further north and west all day, and that is good news, but can we get the cold air to lock in for mainly snow/ice. Right now it looks like a rain event changing to snow, but obviously, still plenty of time for this to change. I will have more tonight when latest model runs come in...

Here are what a few of the National Weather Services are saying...

NWS in Indianapolis: ALL MODELS INDICATE OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY IN ADVANCE OFNEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN VERY DRY AIR TOBE IN PLACE EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS. PRECIP TYPESTILL IN QUESTION THOUGH TRENDS SUGGEST SOUTHERN COUNTIES START WITHA MIX TO TRANSITION TO RAIN WHILE NORTH COUNTIES MAY BE BIT ICY.WILL KEEP AS RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW. RECENT TRENDS INCREASINGLIKELIHOOD OF EVENT SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME TO REFLECT THIS...INCLUDING LKLY POPS FOR PART OF AREA TUESDAY.

NWS in Louisville: MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHTAS MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50 TO 90 KTS BEGINS TO NOSEINTO THE AREA. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILLCONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASINGCHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STARTING INAREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND MOVING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THEDAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING AGOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHTTHROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PLENTY WARM ONTUESDAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS WITH ACLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND A SECONDARYTROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA.THEREFORE...COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTHOF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY ASTHE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL MONDAYAFTERNOON/EVENING AND WAA INCREASED AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ANDSOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUICK TO MOVE OUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THEECMWF BEING A BIT SLOWER. DECIDED TO GO WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HANGON TO HIGH PRECIPITATION LONGER. HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WESTTO EAST STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND LINGERINGSHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURESTUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ORRAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLEDEPENDANT ON GROUND TEMPS AND PRECIP INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT ANYACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT FUTURE SHIFTS SHOULD MONITORTRENDS FOR ANYTHING GREATER THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW.