Ok, so we all know that their is going to be quite a nasty snow/ice storm for either the East Coast or the Midwest next Tuesday and Wednesday. The questions I will be trying to answer the next few days is WHERE? WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION? STORM TRACK? TOTALS?
All of these are up for debate at this time, but what makes weather fun is to speculate, so let's talk computer models...
Preferably I like the GFS, but their are many other models. (NAM, UKMET, ECMWF, EURO, and many more)
If your wanting snow here in the Kentuckiana you want the low pressure system to track over Eastern Kentucky, west off the Appalachian Mountains. The latest 12Z run of the GFS has the storm going east of the Apps with mainly snow here, but most of the plentiful moisture is to our east. If you would like to take a peek at the latest GFS and other models click HERE
We all remember the last potential snow storm last week, and that was forecasted to go to the east, but the models began trending it westward 2-3 days before the storm. It did go west and heavy snow was to our north and heavy rain to our south as we got dry slotted. The low ended up going right over us, which is not good for snow or precipitation for that matter...
THE STORM TRACK WE NEED FOR SNOW
The storm track listed above is where I would like to see the GFS and other models trend the next few days. Personally, after seeing how last week's storm acted, I believe this storm will trend further west than what the GFS depicted in it's latest run.
The latest ECMWF model has a pretty good snowstorm for the region and if this latest model run played out, we would get several inches of snow.
Other models give us rain and others give us rain to ice to snow. This is going to be a very major snow and ice producer for someone. If the storm does track west of the Appalachians, then someone in Kentuckiana would get 10+ inches of snow. I am not saying this is going to happen, but am laying the potential out there. I am in no way hyping this storm, but this has potential to rival the December 2004 storm that dumped over 2 feet of snow in parts of Southern Indiana.
Henry Margusity has even mentioned a BLIZZARD for parts of the Midwest or Ohio Valley...for more on what he is saying CLICK HERE
This storm is going to be very interesting to track over the next several days. Nonetheless somebody, either in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Or East Coast is in for a doozy of a storm and if everything pans out, it may be one for the record books! STAY TUNED! Much more later tonight...
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2 comments:
hey, i think this thing looks like its shiftin east, but as we get closer, it will go back NW and give us over 12" of snow....thoughts?
Nathan...models will do the usual east to west shifts the next few days, but I do think this storm goes further west. Storms this time of year trend further north and west, and an example would be the storm that was forecasted to possibly give us a good snow last week, but then trended west leaving us in the dry slot. Their was heavy rain south and heavy snow north. This storm, in my opinion will be a good snow event for us, but obviously things can change the next several days...stay tuned...PS
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