Thursday, December 4, 2008

Thursday/Mid Evening

I have gotten some emails related to my last post.

I said that this storm could rival the December 2004 storm, and I am sticking to that.

As far as amounts during the '04 storm...some areas saw over 30 inches of snow, but it was very localized. We probably will not achieve this amounts, but IF the storm track goes west of the Appalachian Mountains, parts of Kentuckiana would be talking widespread amounts of 10 inches or more of snow. And if some models are right about the cold and wind, some areas could see blizzard like conditions. The models will do their usual flip flop to the east and west the next several days, but this time of year storms tend to trend further west and north as the storm nears closer. An example of this would be last week's potential snow. The GFS model had this storm east 5-6 days before the storm would enter our area, giving us our first potential accumulating snow. Then it trended west 2-3 days before the storm hit. We ended up in a dry slot with heavy rain south and heavy snow north. Once the storm actually enters the west coast, models begin to get a better grip on the actual storm track. In my opinion, this thing goes west of the Apps, but that is a mix of meteorology and me just wanting it to track this way. I am ready for snow as many of you are. I will have more tonight when the new GFS comes out...

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Patrick...

What would be your guess if the system moves east of the App. Mountains. Mostly rain, or light snow?

Patrick Sumner said...

gardenfarmer...If it went East of the Apps, we would see some snow, probably starting off as rain. Accumulation of snow would be on the light side...PS