Thursday/8:30PM

WEATHER CODE: MODERATE

Haven't had to go to a moderate weather alert code in a while. It is obviously needed due to significant rainfall (across most areas) we have seen today and the past couple of days. Sadly, if you didn't like today's weather, then you won't like Friday or Saturday. Yesterday, I had mentioned rainfall would be less widespread than Wednesday, well was I wrong. A shortwave developed and suprised us weather forecasters/meteorologists. In fact, most National Weather Services, yesterday, only had 30 or 40 POPS (Probability of Precipitation) for today. Weather is by no means an easy phenomena to predict. God has authority over the weather, and that's why we don't always get it right!

Tomorrow and Saturday more shortwaves are expected to ride up along the pesky cold front that has been around for sometime now, providing the lift for these showers and storms. Due to the expected coverage and intensity of rain tomorrow and Saturday, the NWS in Louisville has hoisted a FLASH FLOOD WATCH (graphic and text below)

FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. HEAVY RAINS FALLING OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS FOR SOME CREEKS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS.

Should dry out for Sunday. One word for the beginning of next week...BRRRR!!!! Highs on Tuesday will struggle to make it to 60 with lows in the upper 30's and lower 40's! Fall is here after all! More on this tomorrow! Everyone have a God blessed night!

Wednesday/4:00PM

WEATHER CODE: SLIGHT

Haven't had to go to code green in a while. Doing so, due to the potential of a few more isolated heavy downpours across the region this evening. Currently, showers are sitting over Southern Indiana, and have been for most of the day. I am expecting a little more development to the west of this area, so places like Evansville, Paducah, and Vincennes have the chance to get wet a little later on.

Everything should die out as we lose daytime heating...

Showers and thunderstorms will return tomorrow, but they will be even more isolated. However, storms that do pop up will move slow. So, heavy rain is a possibility.

OK, now that we have all of that out of the way, let's talk severe potential for Friday...

The National Weather Service in Louisville says: BY FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK CAPPING AND DECENT INSTABILITY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

Yesterday the SPC had us in a 30% risk in there 4-8 day outlook, now were not even in a slight risk. (Map below) They will update this early tomorrow morning.

After looking at some of the different models, and looking at some of the parameters that look to be in place, I wouldn't be suprised to see the SPC go to a 30% slight risk either in tomorrow morning's update or tomorrow afternoon.

After this, a shot of cool air early next week with highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's. I'll have more on that as we near closer. Everyone have a God blessed night!

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY

As you all know very heavy rain has been falling across Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. Several water rescues have been reported. Water in some areas is as much as 3 feet deep.

...FLASH FLOODING EMERGENCY...

HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH RAINFALL FROM THIS
MORNING...HAVE LED TO SEVERAL REPORTS OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS MAINLY FLOYD...HARRISON AND CLARK COUNTIES IN INDIANA.
NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN THESE LOCATIONS.

SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED OVER FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN CLARKSVILLE INDIANA...ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER REPORTS OF
OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS
CORYDON...SELLERSBURG...MILLTOWN...GEORGETOWN...CHARLESTOWN AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER RUNNING OVER THESE ROADWAYS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION! DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
THE DEPTH OF THE WATER ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IF WATER IS OVER
ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. EVEN IF THE
RAIN HAS ENDED IN YOUR AREA...FLASH FLOODING AND IMPASSABLE
ROADWAYS WILL STILL PREVAIL.

Training thunderstorms also beginning to develop near the Vincennes area.

Friday/4:35PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



One more dry night, before showers and thunderstorms enter the region beginning tomorrow night. Several disturbances will move through the next 5 days. (The 5 day forecast rainfall totals are below)



Although, the HPC is only forecasting 2 to 3 inches of rainfall over the next 5 days, it's very possible some areas will end up with 4 to 5 inches. This is due and part to expected heavy downpours, which may dump 1 or 2 inches in a short period of time. Widespread flooding is not expected, however, some flooding is possible as we near the end of next week. As always, flash flooding is a concern with the heavier downpours. Right now expect rain tomorrow night, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and potentially Wednesday as well. I'm also watching another disturbance the models are beginning to pick up on for next weekend. All in all, a very wet week is setting up after the almost month long dry spell we have experienced.

Hopefully, there will be some dry periods this weekend, so everyone can get out and enjoy the festivities that are going on across the region.

Everyone have a God blessed night!

Thursday/5:20PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



Dry--that's been the popular word, lately, weatherwise across the Wabash and Ohio Valley Region. However, finally, some rain is beginning to enter the picture this evening. A pesky low pressure system that has been spawning showers and thunderstorms well to our south is now beginning to push a bit further north and the showers have made it into the southern parts of the viewing area now. (Southern Kentucky) This low will begin to push even further north over the weekend and by Saturday night and Sunday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the area.

On Monday a cold front will enter the region, this should bring a decent line of showers and thunderstorms, once again, into the region. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected, however a few isolated severe storms are certainly possible due to the potency of the front. If models continue to agree, Tuesday may also be another wet day as the front hangs across the Ohio and Wabash Valleys.

Computer models are still advertising a big cool down, but now they don't have it starting until early next week. We've seen the models pick up on a big cool down the last month or so, and it always get's pushed further back. However, as far as I'm concerned, fall temperatures can still be expected by the first weekend of fall. I'll be fine tuning this for you as we get closer.

For those of you from my hometown in Seymour, Indiana, your 7 day forecast is below.



WHAT'S YOUR FAVORITE THING ABOUT FALL?



Yesterday, I asked people on my facebook what their favorite thing about fall was. Here is some of the responses...

Todd says: The second tornado season
Kristin says: Bon fires and Chili
Alex says: Thanksgiving
Bevin says: Leaves and fresh air
Jordan says: All the colorful nature and the Oktoberfest (in Seymour)
John says: The cool temperatures
Charis says: Cool temps and pretty colors and it smells nice too!
Cassie says: Leaves falling off the trees
Katherine says: The wonderful weather
Pegi says: The most I enjoy about fall are the sounds of crickets, apple picking, cooler weather, wearing sweaters, and being able to be outside more walking especially through the fallen leaves.

Bethany says: I love all the beautiful fall colors!
Dawna says: apple cider, blustery stormy nights, the smell of woodsmoke hanging in the chilly night air....and taking walks after a storm and seeing the miniature fall leaves, perfectly formed-perfectly colored, pasted to the sidewalk by the deluge.
My mom says: Hearing your dad complain about all the leaves to rake! NOT!

-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Wednesday/12:15PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



Another dry day is on tap across the region with sunny skies and temperatures in the lower and middle 80's.

Showers and thunderstorms still look to be on the increase as we enter the Sunday/Monday time frame. Models are still trying to iron out how much moisture will be available these two days. I'll fine tune the forecast this evening. As advertised yesterday, the big cool down looks to be on the way by the middle of next week. How cool is still the big question. Just taking a peak at the models, we may have a few days with highs in the middle 60's and lows in the lower 40's! I'll have a full update tonight along with the tropical forecast! Everyone have a God blessed day!

Tuesday/3:30PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



It was another dry and warm day across the Wabash and Ohio Valley Region, and this should continue for a majority of the week. However, changes are ahead, and right in time for the Fall season to officially kick into gear. As you know, we have a had a very cool summer. In fact it was the 34th coolest summer in the United States since they started keeping weather data. Pretty impressive to say the least.

Before we talk about the cooler weather that is expected, let's talk about what is going to be ushering in the cooler air. A very potent cold front is expected to settle into the region by Sunday and Monday. There a couple of differences in the computer models when it comes to timing, but a majority do have precipitation. In fact, looking at some of the dynamics associated with this storm system, wouldn't be suprised to see a round of severe weather.

NWS in Louisville says: AS THE FIRST WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...STRONG H5 TROF IS FCST TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...AND A ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

As mentioned above this front will bring some cooler weather into the Wabash and Ohio Valley's. How cool will it get? Well right now, middle 70's for highs and lows in the upper 50's to lower 60's look likely.

Late next week, which, I know, is still several days away, models are beginning to pin-point a more intense cool down.

NWS in LOUISVILLE SAYS: BEYOND THE FCST PD...THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP A VERY LARGE UPPER TROF CENTERED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE TROF AXIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH IT PIVOTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT FRIDAY. H5 HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 2 STD BELOW NORMAL...WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 0. THE 15/12Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE...SO A SHOT AT SOME UPPER 30/LOWER 40S IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEK TO HELP USHER IN THE FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

I'm not going to jump on this bandwagon quite yet, but it's quite possible we may need our coats late next week. I'll have more tomorrow about severe weather chances, and an update on this potential big time cool down. Have a God blessed night!

Thursday/12:00AM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE

Even though its not quite Thursday until another 40 minutes, I'm going to act as if it is...

Another dry day on tap for today, however some patchy fog is already developing and will continue to develop through the early morning hours. Some of the fog will be fairly dense in isolated areas, so please use caution if your going out this early morning. Looks like, now, the dry weather will continue through the weekend with near normal temperatures.

Mr. Fred has now been downgraded to a category 2 hurricane. (Current track below) It was a category 3 earlier today. It will take a westward movement in about 4 days, but by this time it may only be a remnant low. We'll have to watch this to see if it can get its act together once again.

Got this off of Belski's blog. I believe the guy that made this forecast is on the ACCUWEATHER forums. Anyhow, here is his winter forecast, so far. click... HERE

Everyone have a God blessed night!

Tuesday/6:20PM

The Farmers Almanac is predicting a frigid winter for nearly the entire country. For more on this click... HERE

Personally, I cannot wait for winter. It is my favorite season. Winter storms bring a whole new level to the word "prediction" in meteorology.

Tropical storm Fred has now formed in the far eastern Atlantic. The 5 day cone from the NHC is below...

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It looks like Fred, at this time, will stay away from the United States. Other than Fred, the tropics are fairly quiet at this time.

Tuesday/3:40PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



Sorry I haven't updated in a while. I am now majoring in Broadcasting at Vincennes University. In late September I will be on WVUT channel 22 here in Vincennes as the weather anchor. If you live in Bedford, Terre Haute, Evansville, or anywhere around these areas, you will be able to pick up the channel!

As for the weather, a few scattered showers out there today, especially across Northern Indiana and areas east of I65. This is do and part to a pesky low pressure system that just doesn't want to move away. This will continue to provide a chance for a few showers and or thunderstorms the next 2 days, especially east of I65. Temperatures through next Monday, at least, will be near normal with highs in the lower 80's and lows in the upper 50's and lower 60's.

As for the weekend, time will tell. Computer models really not agreeing at this point. What they do agree on is a strong upper low diving into the northern Plains by Thursday/Friday. The disagreement is where the highest concentration of precipitation will be, and how much rain will fall. I'll be fine tuning this as we get closer to the weekend. More tonight...everyone have a God blessed day!