Sorry I haven't posted past few days...been busy with it being the Holiday weekend and all...
Anyways, many of you know that snow is on it's way tonight, but their is some speculation on how much.
Two National Weather Services, which are very close to each other (National Weather Services in Indianapolis, and Louisville) disagree about the amount of snow for South Central Indiana.
NWS IN LOUISVILLE SAYS: A dusting of snow
NWS IN INDIANAPOLIS SAYS: 1-3 inches of snow
There's not many times that I agree with the NWS in Indianapolis, but today I do.
Temperatures are beginning to drop off steadily and are now in the upper 30's, and by 8 or so it should be cold enough for all snow...
Their are two things I see here...
1. The low is really beginning to wrap itself up and in fact it is strengthening as it moves northward.
2. Two pieces of energy, one in Northern Illinois and the other in N/E Missouri and Southern Illinois are beginning to phase. This doesn't mean that two storms are phasing, but two areas of precipitation are beginning to phase together for a broader area of precipitation.
So how much snow?
ANYWHERE NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS: 2-3 inches with localized areas of 4 inches if any lake effect snow bands can form
INDIANAPOLIS and SOUTH TO SEYMOUR: 1-3 inches, the 3 more near Indy, 1-2 more south from their.
SOUTH OF JACKSON, JENNINGS, LAWERENCE: Up to 1 inch of snow
The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has consulted issuing a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, and may do so in the evening package. IF and WHEN they do so, I will post the counties that are in the advisory areas and the amounts that are expected! STAY TUNED!
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Friday, November 28, 2008
Friday/Late Evening 2
Latest GFS and NAM just dry slotted us. It also moved the storm further north and west...what a disappointment.
Probably will be lowering my snow totals drastically due to the agreement of these models.
Probably will be lowering my snow totals drastically due to the agreement of these models.
Friday/Late Evening
OK everyone this has been the most confusing storm to forecast, but I think the area is in for more snow than what has been forecasted.
Here are a few reason why I think so...
-Gulf Moisture is really beginning feed itself into the Ohio Valley. Most models have had low QPF (Qualitive precipitation forecasts) amounts, but I don't quite by into this. Sometimes models have trouble with the phasing of two storm systems or whether the phasing will occur or not. If models can't depict the track, then it's hard for them to spit out how much moisture will be available.
-Latest NAM does have more moisture wrapped into the system, but it tracks it further west. What that would mean for us is more rain then changing to snow with a slushy inch or two. Illinois would see see the heavier snow amounts, however after all the confusion with models today, I'm just going with my gut feeling on this one.
I believe parts of Southern Indiana, preferably (Jackson, Jennings, Lawerence) will get 2-4 out of this system, and maybe an isolated 5 inch amount.
Further south, more sleet/rain will mix in so amounts will be lower, on the order of 1-3 inches of snow. This is my gut feeling from what I have seen the past several days. I believe more moisture will be available then what models are depicting. We should know more by tonight and I may have to adjust these snow totals, IF models begin to agree on track of system and how much moisture will be available...STAY TUNED!
Here are a few reason why I think so...
-Gulf Moisture is really beginning feed itself into the Ohio Valley. Most models have had low QPF (Qualitive precipitation forecasts) amounts, but I don't quite by into this. Sometimes models have trouble with the phasing of two storm systems or whether the phasing will occur or not. If models can't depict the track, then it's hard for them to spit out how much moisture will be available.
-Latest NAM does have more moisture wrapped into the system, but it tracks it further west. What that would mean for us is more rain then changing to snow with a slushy inch or two. Illinois would see see the heavier snow amounts, however after all the confusion with models today, I'm just going with my gut feeling on this one.
I believe parts of Southern Indiana, preferably (Jackson, Jennings, Lawerence) will get 2-4 out of this system, and maybe an isolated 5 inch amount.
Further south, more sleet/rain will mix in so amounts will be lower, on the order of 1-3 inches of snow. This is my gut feeling from what I have seen the past several days. I believe more moisture will be available then what models are depicting. We should know more by tonight and I may have to adjust these snow totals, IF models begin to agree on track of system and how much moisture will be available...STAY TUNED!
Friday/Early Afternoon
Just wanted to give a quick update on where we stand for snow accumulation across Kentuckiana...
-New GFS and NAM models came in about 1 hour ago, and their really isn't much of a difference between the both of them. They take the low pretty far north into Southern Ohio. As the low is in Eastern Kentucky...where the heaviest snow would be possible, warmer air will probably keep some of the precipitation rain or sleet.
-Right now this doesn't look like a classic Ohio Valley snowstorm. Instead were looking at a 1-3 inch band of snow across South Central Indiana (Jackson, Jennings, Lawerence). Lesser amounts to the south. Most accumulation will be on grassy areas due to the temperature hovering above 32. Sunday night into Monday we will see wrap around light snow, and this will actually be the better chance for accumulating snow across Kentuckiana. Some slick spots my develop Sunday night into Monday morning...so be careful out their!
-I will update later...hopefully I will be more hopeful than this by that time...
MORE LATER...
-New GFS and NAM models came in about 1 hour ago, and their really isn't much of a difference between the both of them. They take the low pretty far north into Southern Ohio. As the low is in Eastern Kentucky...where the heaviest snow would be possible, warmer air will probably keep some of the precipitation rain or sleet.
-Right now this doesn't look like a classic Ohio Valley snowstorm. Instead were looking at a 1-3 inch band of snow across South Central Indiana (Jackson, Jennings, Lawerence). Lesser amounts to the south. Most accumulation will be on grassy areas due to the temperature hovering above 32. Sunday night into Monday we will see wrap around light snow, and this will actually be the better chance for accumulating snow across Kentuckiana. Some slick spots my develop Sunday night into Monday morning...so be careful out their!
-I will update later...hopefully I will be more hopeful than this by that time...
MORE LATER...
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Thursday/Late Evening
Ok the new run of the NAM just came in...and it is back to a potential winter storm for Kentuckiana...
Let's take a look
The position of the low is much further north and west than the last NAM model run.
Also the track of the low is in North Eastern Kentucky...I would like this to be a bit further south personally, but still if all panned out 3-6 for Southern Indiana, lesser amounts south, higher amounts north. Just wanted to do a quick update...more soon...
FOR THOSE IN SOUTHERN INDIANA: We want the low to track near Lousiville or E-Town for a heavy snow event.
FOR THOSE IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY: You want the low to track across Southern Kentucky for the heaviest swath of snow...
Right now we get some accumulation with the new NAM, but the heaviest swath would be just to our north. This is subject to change so stay tuned!
Let's take a look
The position of the low is much further north and west than the last NAM model run.
Also the track of the low is in North Eastern Kentucky...I would like this to be a bit further south personally, but still if all panned out 3-6 for Southern Indiana, lesser amounts south, higher amounts north. Just wanted to do a quick update...more soon...
FOR THOSE IN SOUTHERN INDIANA: We want the low to track near Lousiville or E-Town for a heavy snow event.
FOR THOSE IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY: You want the low to track across Southern Kentucky for the heaviest swath of snow...
Right now we get some accumulation with the new NAM, but the heaviest swath would be just to our north. This is subject to change so stay tuned!
Thursday/Mid Evening 2
WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***
Ok I have calmed down a bit and I want to wait until tomorrow before I say NO snowstorm for Kentuckiana. Just a few points I want to make...
1. Precipitation in the Plain states is about 6 hours earlier than what was depicted by the computer models. This doesn't have much effect, but just an interesting fact to put out their.
2. Computer models ALL day have pretty much went away from the phasing of two storm systems across Eastern Kentucky, which would give us 6+ inches of snow. And most models have backed off of these two storms systems even phasing together. What this means is we may see some snow, but it will be on a much lighter scale, and we would see some accumulation. (around 1 inch).
3. Let's see what computer models print out tonight into tomorrow before we make any conclusions or write anything in stone here. Computer models always have trouble with phasing two storm systems together, and it's always a possibility that the models are wrong, but it's hard to make a prediction without. Let's wait for tomorrow...who knows, maybe the models will go back to the doomsday snowstorm for the Ohio Valley...STAY TUNED!
Ok I have calmed down a bit and I want to wait until tomorrow before I say NO snowstorm for Kentuckiana. Just a few points I want to make...
1. Precipitation in the Plain states is about 6 hours earlier than what was depicted by the computer models. This doesn't have much effect, but just an interesting fact to put out their.
2. Computer models ALL day have pretty much went away from the phasing of two storm systems across Eastern Kentucky, which would give us 6+ inches of snow. And most models have backed off of these two storms systems even phasing together. What this means is we may see some snow, but it will be on a much lighter scale, and we would see some accumulation. (around 1 inch).
3. Let's see what computer models print out tonight into tomorrow before we make any conclusions or write anything in stone here. Computer models always have trouble with phasing two storm systems together, and it's always a possibility that the models are wrong, but it's hard to make a prediction without. Let's wait for tomorrow...who knows, maybe the models will go back to the doomsday snowstorm for the Ohio Valley...STAY TUNED!
Thursday/Mid Evening
I don't have much to say because I am frustrated. After I cool down a bit, I will post a more detailed outlook on why Kentuckiana will not get a huge snowstorm with this Sunday/Monday system.
I get so frustrated...yesterday two key models EURO and GFS had a significant snowstorm for the Ohio Valley, now it looks like the main moisture will be to our north...amazing...more later...
I get so frustrated...yesterday two key models EURO and GFS had a significant snowstorm for the Ohio Valley, now it looks like the main moisture will be to our north...amazing...more later...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Wednesday/Mid Afternoon
WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***
So I just got done reading the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Indianapolis, and it was probably the worst detailed and shortest discussion I have ever had to read. The first potential accumulating snow is on the way and these guys lay back and say hardly anything.
Here is what they said in the beginning of their discussion
YOU COULD ARGUE PROBLEM OF DAY IS SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO DO MUCH ABOUT IT EXCEPT MAINTAIN AWARENESS.
I respect the National Weather Service in Indianapolis and the services they provide to the region, but sometimes I just get frustrated with them...
Sorry for ranting...back to the weather.
We have a very interesting situation beginning to transpire for the weekend and into early next week. The first accumulating snow of the season looks very likely Sunday, Monday, into Tuesday and one of the models is actually beginning to take on the idea of a snowstorm.
Let's run through a few computer models and then discuss more from there...
Below is the latest GFS for Tuesday. The reason I show this to you is so you can see how wrapped up the low is and where the track of the storm is.
(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)
As you can tell the low is in Eastern Kentucky, but the temperature is a few degrees about 32. However, thermal profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere should be cold enough for mostly snow across a majority of Southern Indiana. As you go further south across Northern and Central Kentucky, sleet and some rain may mix in, which would cut down on snow totals. Again this analysis is coming from the latest run from the GFS...other models offer different solutions.
Again this system will be already pulling in some moisture Sunday, but the main shield of precip would evolve Sunday night into Monday.
The latest run from the GFS has quite a bit of more moisture available then previous runs. The National Weather Service in Louisville explains this...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS BY FAR THE MOST TRICKY PERIOD. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS COME IN QUITE ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A CLOSED LOW AND LARGE...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN THE THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGING THE LOW OVER KENTUCKY. THIS SETUP WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. I BELIEVE THAT THE GFS GENERATING STRONG CYCLOGENISIS MAY BE OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT IN A TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER. WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT DID ADJUST POPS SOME DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD TO REFLECT THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE GFS TREND CONTINUES TO COME IN WETTER AND MORE SOUTHERLY IN ITS TRACK WITH THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLY ALL SNOW FOR SHORT TIMES AND THE WEATHER GRIDS REFLECT THIS.
What I don't get in this discussion is he says wetter, but then mentions ALL snow or RAIN/SNOW mix...someone is trying to beat around the bush in my opinion.
Other models such as the Canadian models, and ECMWF as mentioned above do go for a more northerly track with more of the moisture being pulled to the north across Central Indiana.
MY ANALYSIS: After looking at the 12z run of the GFS, I have had trouble seeing this solution, because many of the storms this time of year trend further north, however that is just a statistic. Either way, north or south, someone across Kentuckiana is going to get a accumulating snow, and right now it looks that the better potential is across South Central and Central Indiana. This doesn't at all exclude areas across extreme Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. This storm is still several days away and will need to be monitored closely as we near closer to Sunday and Monday. STAY TUNED!
So I just got done reading the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Indianapolis, and it was probably the worst detailed and shortest discussion I have ever had to read. The first potential accumulating snow is on the way and these guys lay back and say hardly anything.
Here is what they said in the beginning of their discussion
YOU COULD ARGUE PROBLEM OF DAY IS SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO DO MUCH ABOUT IT EXCEPT MAINTAIN AWARENESS.
I respect the National Weather Service in Indianapolis and the services they provide to the region, but sometimes I just get frustrated with them...
Sorry for ranting...back to the weather.
We have a very interesting situation beginning to transpire for the weekend and into early next week. The first accumulating snow of the season looks very likely Sunday, Monday, into Tuesday and one of the models is actually beginning to take on the idea of a snowstorm.
Let's run through a few computer models and then discuss more from there...
Below is the latest GFS for Tuesday. The reason I show this to you is so you can see how wrapped up the low is and where the track of the storm is.
(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)
As you can tell the low is in Eastern Kentucky, but the temperature is a few degrees about 32. However, thermal profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere should be cold enough for mostly snow across a majority of Southern Indiana. As you go further south across Northern and Central Kentucky, sleet and some rain may mix in, which would cut down on snow totals. Again this analysis is coming from the latest run from the GFS...other models offer different solutions.
Again this system will be already pulling in some moisture Sunday, but the main shield of precip would evolve Sunday night into Monday.
The latest run from the GFS has quite a bit of more moisture available then previous runs. The National Weather Service in Louisville explains this...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS BY FAR THE MOST TRICKY PERIOD. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS COME IN QUITE ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A CLOSED LOW AND LARGE...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN THE THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGING THE LOW OVER KENTUCKY. THIS SETUP WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. I BELIEVE THAT THE GFS GENERATING STRONG CYCLOGENISIS MAY BE OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT IN A TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER. WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT DID ADJUST POPS SOME DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD TO REFLECT THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE GFS TREND CONTINUES TO COME IN WETTER AND MORE SOUTHERLY IN ITS TRACK WITH THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLY ALL SNOW FOR SHORT TIMES AND THE WEATHER GRIDS REFLECT THIS.
What I don't get in this discussion is he says wetter, but then mentions ALL snow or RAIN/SNOW mix...someone is trying to beat around the bush in my opinion.
Other models such as the Canadian models, and ECMWF as mentioned above do go for a more northerly track with more of the moisture being pulled to the north across Central Indiana.
MY ANALYSIS: After looking at the 12z run of the GFS, I have had trouble seeing this solution, because many of the storms this time of year trend further north, however that is just a statistic. Either way, north or south, someone across Kentuckiana is going to get a accumulating snow, and right now it looks that the better potential is across South Central and Central Indiana. This doesn't at all exclude areas across extreme Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. This storm is still several days away and will need to be monitored closely as we near closer to Sunday and Monday. STAY TUNED!
Wednesday/Late Morning
Just got done looking at a couple of model runs for this weekend and for Monday and Tuesday. We could have our first accumulating snow on the way for Saturday night into Sunday. Models weren't picking up very well a couple of days ago on this potential weekend system, and I almost gave up on it, but once again it is back! We will talk much more specifics and go through a few models later this afternoon. We will also discuss the potential for more snow Monday into Tuesday...STAY TUNED!
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Tuesday/Early Evening
WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***
After a chilly day today, a warm up is on the way and right in time for Thanksgiving!
THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST
HIGHS: LOWER TO MID 50's REGION WIDE
LOWS: LOWER TO MID 30's REGION WIDE
I have several Thanksgiving dinners to go to and I have been trying to save some room in my stomach, but haven't been doing very well!! It seems as I near Thanksgiving, I think about the Thanksgiving food and it makes me more hungry right before the holiday, so I eat more! Go figure...
Back to the weather now...the weekend system still has potential, but not to much. Looks like the cold dome of air ushering in from the north will suppress the storm system to our south. What this means for us is a rather dry weekend, but stay tuned...still some time for the models to change.
I am keeping an eye on another southern sytem, that may just bring some snow in here next Monday or Tuesday. Still to far out to talk specifics, but stay tuned!
Tuesday/Early Morning
After getting excited yesterday, models have took a shift on the weekend storm.
A dome of high pressure may suppress the storm to our south for the weekend, and the way it looks now, little or no precipitation may fall.
Even though the storm doesn't look like a big snow/rain/ice maker right now...it will be something to keep an eye on, as the storm is still several days away.
A dome of high pressure may suppress the storm to our south for the weekend, and the way it looks now, little or no precipitation may fall.
Even though the storm doesn't look like a big snow/rain/ice maker right now...it will be something to keep an eye on, as the storm is still several days away.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Monday/Late Evening
Some excitement beginning to build in me...
Most computer models are now trending further north with the weekend system...parts of the area look to be in for the first winter storm of the year. Much more tomorrow...
Most computer models are now trending further north with the weekend system...parts of the area look to be in for the first winter storm of the year. Much more tomorrow...
Monday/Mid Afternoon
WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Wet roads and a few snow showers tonight***
Well it is Monday, and we have alot going on in the weather department. After a decent soaking today, all eyes are on the weekend and the potential first winter storm for the Ohio Valley Region. This is a tough storm and models still haven't come into agreement as to where the low will track. What is positive, is that their will be a storm, but how much moisture will it have and how far north will the precipitation go?
Let's discuss a few models
Here is the GFS. This brings much of the moisture to our south and we would only recieve a few snow flurries if this model would verify.
(GFS MODEL) HOUR 102
Can't seem to get the EURO model posted on here...however it brings the low into Far South Eastern Kentucky...this would be much better for snow/ice here. Other models show the system going well south with little or no precipitation, and others have mostly rain. I will keep an eye on this system as we near closer...STAY TUNED...
Well it is Monday, and we have alot going on in the weather department. After a decent soaking today, all eyes are on the weekend and the potential first winter storm for the Ohio Valley Region. This is a tough storm and models still haven't come into agreement as to where the low will track. What is positive, is that their will be a storm, but how much moisture will it have and how far north will the precipitation go?
Let's discuss a few models
Here is the GFS. This brings much of the moisture to our south and we would only recieve a few snow flurries if this model would verify.
(GFS MODEL) HOUR 102
Can't seem to get the EURO model posted on here...however it brings the low into Far South Eastern Kentucky...this would be much better for snow/ice here. Other models show the system going well south with little or no precipitation, and others have mostly rain. I will keep an eye on this system as we near closer...STAY TUNED...
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Sunday/Late Afternoon
WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Moderate to at sometimes heavy rain tonight into tomorrow***
Few points to make here before we start the new work week. Since it is Sunday...short post for today...I will go more in depth tomorrow.
-First off moderate to heavy rain will overspread Kentuckiana tonight, and it may end off as a little light snow flurry activity tomorrow afternoon. No snow accumulation is expected, however a few slick spots could develop if we see a burst of heavier snow flurry/showers. Rainfall totals will be in the half of an inch to an inch range. Good soaking expected across the entire region.
-Now that I have this weekends storm figured out...I can talk about it a little. Their is two storm systems that have the potential to become our first winter storm of the year. I'll just talk about this upcoming weekend for now.
Models have been everywhere, but most of them do show a storm, which is good! Models also agree plentiful moisture will be available from the Gulf of Mexico. What this does mean is whoever get's snow/ice, it could be a rather large amount (4-6+). Depending on the track of the storm will determine where the snow/ice/and rain set-up. If we want heavy snow here, look for the low to track into Eastern Kentucky!
The latest GFS has it cutting through Central Georgia and Alabama. This would put most of the moisture to our south! However, this is not set in stone and the computer models will vary day by day until the storm system is nearly here. Let's hope for a more north and northeasterly track...
Few points to make here before we start the new work week. Since it is Sunday...short post for today...I will go more in depth tomorrow.
-First off moderate to heavy rain will overspread Kentuckiana tonight, and it may end off as a little light snow flurry activity tomorrow afternoon. No snow accumulation is expected, however a few slick spots could develop if we see a burst of heavier snow flurry/showers. Rainfall totals will be in the half of an inch to an inch range. Good soaking expected across the entire region.
-Now that I have this weekends storm figured out...I can talk about it a little. Their is two storm systems that have the potential to become our first winter storm of the year. I'll just talk about this upcoming weekend for now.
Models have been everywhere, but most of them do show a storm, which is good! Models also agree plentiful moisture will be available from the Gulf of Mexico. What this does mean is whoever get's snow/ice, it could be a rather large amount (4-6+). Depending on the track of the storm will determine where the snow/ice/and rain set-up. If we want heavy snow here, look for the low to track into Eastern Kentucky!
The latest GFS has it cutting through Central Georgia and Alabama. This would put most of the moisture to our south! However, this is not set in stone and the computer models will vary day by day until the storm system is nearly here. Let's hope for a more north and northeasterly track...
(CLICK ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)
Henry Margusity from ACCUWEATHER has Louisville on north in the snow band this upcoming weekend, and the rest of Kentucky in a mix of precipitation! Let's hope this all pans out...STAY TUNED SNOW LOVERS!
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Saturday/Late Afternoon
WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***
After a quite weather pattern so far, things are about to get quite interesting across the Ohio Valley Region. First storm I am focusing on is the one Sunday night into Monday. There is not much moisture to work with, and the precipitation should be in the form of all rain. Their may be a mix along and north of I-70, but ground accumulation will be very light due to the temperature hovering around 32.
The second storm I am now confused about. There is supposed to be a storm this upcoming weekend. The potential winter storm I was speaking of I thought was this weekend, but could be the weekend after or both. I am not sure. Until I see the models and figure things out I am just going to hold off on talking about it for now...
More later...
After a quite weather pattern so far, things are about to get quite interesting across the Ohio Valley Region. First storm I am focusing on is the one Sunday night into Monday. There is not much moisture to work with, and the precipitation should be in the form of all rain. Their may be a mix along and north of I-70, but ground accumulation will be very light due to the temperature hovering around 32.
The second storm I am now confused about. There is supposed to be a storm this upcoming weekend. The potential winter storm I was speaking of I thought was this weekend, but could be the weekend after or both. I am not sure. Until I see the models and figure things out I am just going to hold off on talking about it for now...
More later...
Saturday/Early Afternoon
Few quick things here...have to get back to work.
-Two storms to keep an eye on for this upcoming week
First storm will be Sunday night into Monday. Very light to moderate rain will overspread the area Sunday night into Monday. This may end off as a few snow flurries Monday morning.
Second storm will move in right after Thanksgiving, and this does have the potential to be the first winter storm of the year. More on this later...
-Two storms to keep an eye on for this upcoming week
First storm will be Sunday night into Monday. Very light to moderate rain will overspread the area Sunday night into Monday. This may end off as a few snow flurries Monday morning.
Second storm will move in right after Thanksgiving, and this does have the potential to be the first winter storm of the year. More on this later...
Friday, November 21, 2008
Friday/Early Afternoon
WEATHER CODE: YELLOW...TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT
Cold temperatures will dominate the area tonight as we are planted right under a high pressure system. With clear skies expected all across Kentuckiana, temperatures will drop into the upper teens, and a few spots into the middle teens.
CPC (Climate Prediction Center) released their winter outlook yesterday, but I have to say...DO NOT bet your bottom on this forecast. If you would like to take a look at what they have to say... click HERE
We may see a little rain/snow Sunday night into Monday, but moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be very limited.
In the long term, cold weather looks to be setting in for December, and just down right frigid by Mid December. As for snow, their seems to be a pretty decent storm setting up in about two weeks. I'll keep an eye on it and keep you updated. This storm would be the one to lock the cold and frigid weather in for quite a while.
More later...
Friday/Early Morning
Quick update here:
Some flurries/snow showers have caused a few slick spots in areas that recieved a dusting to at sometimes, 1 inch of snow in Central Kentucky.
Quick look at latest GFS still shows the storm about two weeks out, but rain for the most part and then some snow/ice at the end. Again this is in the very long term, and track solutions will not be right. I will continue to update model trends...
Signs are that the warmer weather for early December is beginning to look less likely. We may be locking into the cooler weather, and then frigid by mid December...
More later...
Some flurries/snow showers have caused a few slick spots in areas that recieved a dusting to at sometimes, 1 inch of snow in Central Kentucky.
Quick look at latest GFS still shows the storm about two weeks out, but rain for the most part and then some snow/ice at the end. Again this is in the very long term, and track solutions will not be right. I will continue to update model trends...
Signs are that the warmer weather for early December is beginning to look less likely. We may be locking into the cooler weather, and then frigid by mid December...
More later...
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Thursday/Mid Evening
WEATHER CODE: YELLOW...FRIGID TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT
Ok after quite a while, I am back to blogging and will be updating on a regular basis now!
The cold air continues to invade the Ohio Valley Region, and there's no real end in sight, at least for a little while. The Lake Affect snow machine has kicked into gear, and this has provided us with a few snow flurries/showers earlier today. As tonight wears on the snow flurries will diminish, only to redevelop tomorrow and into Saturday. Some what warmer weather will return early week. Thanksgiving looks dry, but chilly.
For the very long term. This is for day 16 on the GFS model. If this would play out (Which is unlikely, but still possible) we would have our first measurable snow of the season. However, the models continue to go for warmer weather as we head into early December. Plus most of the moisture is to the south. Right now I'm just looking for the first snowstorm to show up on the models. I will throw these out their and you can speculate! There is a possibility this could be the storm that keeps the cold weather locked in for a while! STAY TUNED...
And this doesn't have much to do with weather, but the government is telling the Midwest to prepare for a catastrophic earthquake. For more on that story click HERE
Ok after quite a while, I am back to blogging and will be updating on a regular basis now!
The cold air continues to invade the Ohio Valley Region, and there's no real end in sight, at least for a little while. The Lake Affect snow machine has kicked into gear, and this has provided us with a few snow flurries/showers earlier today. As tonight wears on the snow flurries will diminish, only to redevelop tomorrow and into Saturday. Some what warmer weather will return early week. Thanksgiving looks dry, but chilly.
For the very long term. This is for day 16 on the GFS model. If this would play out (Which is unlikely, but still possible) we would have our first measurable snow of the season. However, the models continue to go for warmer weather as we head into early December. Plus most of the moisture is to the south. Right now I'm just looking for the first snowstorm to show up on the models. I will throw these out their and you can speculate! There is a possibility this could be the storm that keeps the cold weather locked in for a while! STAY TUNED...
And this doesn't have much to do with weather, but the government is telling the Midwest to prepare for a catastrophic earthquake. For more on that story click HERE
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