Wednesday/Mid Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



So I just got done reading the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Indianapolis, and it was probably the worst detailed and shortest discussion I have ever had to read. The first potential accumulating snow is on the way and these guys lay back and say hardly anything.

Here is what they said in the beginning of their discussion

YOU COULD ARGUE PROBLEM OF DAY IS SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO DO MUCH ABOUT IT EXCEPT MAINTAIN AWARENESS.

I respect the National Weather Service in Indianapolis and the services they provide to the region, but sometimes I just get frustrated with them...

Sorry for ranting...back to the weather.

We have a very interesting situation beginning to transpire for the weekend and into early next week. The first accumulating snow of the season looks very likely Sunday, Monday, into Tuesday and one of the models is actually beginning to take on the idea of a snowstorm.

Let's run through a few computer models and then discuss more from there...

Below is the latest GFS for Tuesday. The reason I show this to you is so you can see how wrapped up the low is and where the track of the storm is.

(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)



As you can tell the low is in Eastern Kentucky, but the temperature is a few degrees about 32. However, thermal profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere should be cold enough for mostly snow across a majority of Southern Indiana. As you go further south across Northern and Central Kentucky, sleet and some rain may mix in, which would cut down on snow totals. Again this analysis is coming from the latest run from the GFS...other models offer different solutions.

Again this system will be already pulling in some moisture Sunday, but the main shield of precip would evolve Sunday night into Monday.

The latest run from the GFS has quite a bit of more moisture available then previous runs. The National Weather Service in Louisville explains this...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS BY FAR THE MOST TRICKY PERIOD. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS COME IN QUITE ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A CLOSED LOW AND LARGE...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN THE THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGING THE LOW OVER KENTUCKY. THIS SETUP WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. I BELIEVE THAT THE GFS GENERATING STRONG CYCLOGENISIS MAY BE OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT IN A TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER. WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT DID ADJUST POPS SOME DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD TO REFLECT THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE GFS TREND CONTINUES TO COME IN WETTER AND MORE SOUTHERLY IN ITS TRACK WITH THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLY ALL SNOW FOR SHORT TIMES AND THE WEATHER GRIDS REFLECT THIS.

What I don't get in this discussion is he says wetter, but then mentions ALL snow or RAIN/SNOW mix...someone is trying to beat around the bush in my opinion.

Other models such as the Canadian models, and ECMWF as mentioned above do go for a more northerly track with more of the moisture being pulled to the north across Central Indiana.

MY ANALYSIS: After looking at the 12z run of the GFS, I have had trouble seeing this solution, because many of the storms this time of year trend further north, however that is just a statistic. Either way, north or south, someone across Kentuckiana is going to get a accumulating snow, and right now it looks that the better potential is across South Central and Central Indiana. This doesn't at all exclude areas across extreme Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. This storm is still several days away and will need to be monitored closely as we near closer to Sunday and Monday. STAY TUNED!