Focus will be on next week's storm system...
Just wanted to briefly discuss the weather for the rest of the week and then talk about the potential for a nasty winter storm next week...
After temperatures last week in the single digits and teens for highs, temperatures will rebound into the middle 30's tomorrow and lower 40's by Thursday. A cold front will slide through the region Friday morning and this will cool temperatures back into the upper 20's for the weekend and the colder weather will likely last through the rest of next week. Precipitation the rest of the week will be very minimal with only a chance for a few flurries and or snow showers Friday as the front enters the region.
NASTY WINTER STORM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
We have been discussing this for the last few days now, and it's becoming apparent that a winter storm is on it's way for at least a portion of the Midwestern Region early next week. Computer models today have been consistent in bringing a storm into the Midwest, but they have struggled with the potential track of the storm(s). Computer models, particularly the GFS has several waves of low pressure riding up along a front Monday through Wednesday. The track of these waves will determine the amount of precipitation and the precipitation type. Their are several computer models that are now depicting a massive overunning event for Kentuckiana. A couple of the more accurate weather models we use to forecast weather (GFS, EURO) look like a nightmare for the Ohio Valley Region. Both of these models support a massive overunning event with two storm systems riding to our south, placing us in the area for frozen precipitation. The question is, will that be ice or snow? And at this point I can't answer that, but what I can do is speculate. Due to the high pressure system that will be in place across the Northern sections of the United States, this storm will likely be supressed southward. If you want a massive ice or snowstorm, you don't want the storm to far south, as the main moisture field would be shoved southward into Tennessee. Right now I would take the track from south of St. Louis to Southern Kentucky. This would place us in a potentially dangerous situation beginning Monday and ending Tuesday night or Wednesday. I hate to jump the gun here, and I may regret it, but to me it seems very probable that the first winter storm has it's eyes fixed on us early next week. It's to early to talk about where the ice/snow line sets up. However, a major ice/snow event looks likely heading into early next week.
To take a look at what different National Weather Services are saying about the storm...click the links below...
NWS in Lousville: click HERE
NWS in Paducah: click HERE
NWS in St. Louis: click HERE
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2 comments:
Patrick, I have a feeling we are going to get a very nasty ice storm out of this. More so you than me, since i live closer to Bloomington (north of bloomington actually).
After taking a nap during the 00Z and 06Z runs, the GFS has brought a little something back into the area on the 12Z. It went from a big storm yesterday, to no storm this morning, to now about 2-4" of white stuff. The main energy is being held back in California and wont arrive in our neck of the woods until day 9 or so. BY then, too much WAA will result in a GLC, which as you said would mostly be an all rain event for us.
Hate the GFS! It's such a tease.
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