First off my prayers go out the families that have lost their power and will not have it on for several weeks. I love winter storms, but I hate to see others go without something that is needed for survival. May God bless you guys and I will continue to pray for you!
OK we need to talk about next week's storm system. I've been going over computer models the last few days and it has stayed consistent in showing a storm for the Monday/Monday night into Tuesday time frame! The track of the storm system is what we will all be trying to figure out the next several days as their are several solutions to what may happen. Lately the GFS has trended the storm east of the Apps which would give us some light snow, but not anything of significance. The ECMWF BOMBS a very strong low west of the Appalachians which would give us yet another snowstorm or icestorm or both across Kentuckiana. A couple of computer models including the UKMET are showing a 966 millibar low which would be a SUPERSTORM for anyone that get's hit with it. Other models go in between the East Apps track and West Apps track, which tracks it right up the spine of the Appalachians. From what I have looked at the GFS is the furthest east. As you can see their is still plenty of uncertainity here. This looks very similiar to the December 2004 storm where Southern Indiana had snow totals exceeding 3 feet with amounts trailing off in the 15-20 inch range to the south. I have seen storms like this and they tend to track further west. I am not saying this storm is for us, but it does bear watching the next several days. What I found interesting was AFD'S (Area Forecast Discussions) from different National Weather Services across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Read some of these below...I think you will be impressed!
NWS in Louisville: GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A POSSIBLE EAST COAST STORM MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR WEST WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSIFYING SYSTEM GOES. THE 29 00Z ECMWF IS PERHAPS THE MOST OMINOUS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS LATEST RUN INTENSIFIES THE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT MONDAY...PLACING CENTRAL KENTUCKY RIGHT IN A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT CAN FREQUENTLY YIELD SNOW. AS A COMPARISON...THE LATEST GFS IS FARTHER EAST...TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION VERIFY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING. IN MY EXPERIENCE AT LOUISVILLE...I FIND THE INSIDE TRACK THE ECMWF IS PROPOSING TO BE RARE. I DON`T OFTEN SEE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE GO UP THE PIEDMONT OR ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. I DO REMEMBER ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER...THE DECEMBER 2004 SOUTHERN INDIANA SNOWSTORM.
NWS in Wilmington: MODELS ARE WAFFLING A BIT ON THE HANDLING OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT SIGNS ARE GROWING THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE REGION. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE SETUP LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO THE DEC 22-23 2004 STORM THAT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ICE/SNOW ACRS THE OH VLY. Click HERE to read the entire discussion
NWS in Central Indiana: THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT STORM BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A BIG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WHAT IS IN QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS BASICALLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT INDIANA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. BUT THE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS SO IT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER IF THIS LOW TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INSTEAD...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.
NWS in Northern Indiana: THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR A HEAVY SYNOPTIC SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF AND SOME CANADIAN GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT TENDENCY FOR THE INITIAL MODEL SFC LOW TRACK TO BE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MENTION THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
NWS in Detroit/Pontiac: THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS STILL INDICATING QUICKER PHASING...ALLOWING THEA LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BUILD SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...SPINNING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM...TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST OR JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN MODEL AGREE WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A MAJOR SYSTEM...POSSIBLE METEOROLOGICAL BOMB IN FACT! THE 00Z UKMET WAS SHOWING A 966 MB LOW LATE TUESDAY RIGHT NEAR BUFFALO...SIMILAR IN POSITION TO THE 00Z EUROPEAN...WHICH OUTPUTS A HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF QPF OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.WE WILL JUST EASE INTO THIS SLOWLY AT THIS POINT AND MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
I WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS ONE...STAY TUNED!
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