Monday/Early Evening

WEATHER CODE: RED ***DANGEROUS WINTER STORM ON THE WAY***

STORM MODE-I will be having updates through a majority of the night...



A potentially DANGEROUS and LIFE THREATENING winter storm is now only 5 to 6 hours away. Latest computer models continue to be consistent with heavy QPF and a very decent frontogenesis/overrunning event.

I have been and still am concerned for a significant ice storm for the Louisville area, and now this is beginning to look more likely...

This storm system will come in three seprate waves...

1st round: Late tonight into Tuesday morning

2nd round: Tuesday afternoon, but much lighter than the first round of precipitation...

3rd round: The heaviest round of precipitation will begin Tuesday night and last through Wednesday morning...

Let's break it down wave by wave...

1ST WAVE: 4-6 inches of snow across all of Southern/South Central Indiana. Snowfall accumulation along the Ohio River and 10 to 20 miles south will range from 3 to 6 inches. Areas south of the Bluegrass Parkway will recieve 2-4 inches of snow with a good amount of sleet mixing in. Areas across Southern Kentucky can expect 1-3 inches of snow with SIGNIFICANT icing which may lead to power outages and widespread downed tree limbs.

2ND WAVE: Precipitation will taper off to only light precipitation Tuesday afternoon. Additional accumulation with this round of precipitation will be less than 1 inch, but by this time the damage will be done so-to-speak.

3RD WAVE: This will be the most significant of the three waves. Very heavy sleet, freezing rain, and snow will move into the entire region by Tuesday night before ending late Wednesday morning. This will dump an additional 3-5 inches of snow across Southern and South Central Indiana. The heaviest precipitation will be located along the Ohio River. As WWA (Warm air advection) overruns the cold air, places that were snow will change to heavy sleet and freezing rain.This will happen from Louisville southward to the Bluegrass Parkway. Areas about 20-40 miles south of Louisville may change to a period of rain and freezing rain. Precipitation across Southern Kentucky will most likely change to PLAIN RAIN with this third wave. The good news is this would improve road conditions well to the south of Louisville, however treacherous road conditions will continue from The Bluegrass Parkway on north. The potential for a ICE STORM is beginning to grow across Northern Kentucky including the Louisville area. Latest model analysis pushes the freezing line north of Louisville, however their has been some warm air bias, so expect freezing line to be around or just south of Louisville. Areas across Northern Kentucky will have a mixture of sleet/freezing rain. Right now I will lean with more freezing rain across this area with the potential for .50 of ice accumulation. This may result in scattered power outages across Northern Kentucky including the Louisville metro. Areas about 20-40 miles south of Louisville will continue with a freezing rain and rain mix. All of this will go back to snow with another coating of accumulation possible.

Let's talk TOTAL AMOUNTS for all THREE WAVES

Southern/South Central Indiana (Including Seymour, North Vernon, Bedford, Paoli, Madison, Scottsburg): 7-11 inches of snow with about .10 ice accumulation. This will make for very DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...

Northern Kentucky/Extreme Southern Indiana (including Louisville, Jeffersonville, Elizabethtown, Frankfort, Lexington): 3-6 inches of snow with SIGNIFICANT amounts of ICE ACCUMULATION. This may result in scattered power outages...

Central/Southern Kentucky (Campbellsville, Bowling Green, Hopkinsville): Very SIGNIFICANT icing with first wave of precipitation. Potential for up to 1 inch of ice. This will result in WIDESPREAD power outages...

PLEASE PREPARE FOR THIS STORM AND BE PREPARED TO STAY IN YOUR HOUSE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

I will be updating throughout the night...STAY TUNED!