Friday, January 23, 2009

Friday/Early Evening

I will be doing updates on next week's storm including computer models, changes in precipitation type, and storm track for most of the night.

Here is my latest thinking: I've seen to many storms to let to many fool me. Right now models have the heaviest QPF across extreme Southern Indiana/Northern Kentucky. I tend to think this is a bit to far south. I've seen several storms where WAA (Warm air advection) wins out over the cold air. However, this does not mean we will see rain. What it does mean is more ice for places across Northern Kentucky with the heavier snow across Southern/South Central Indiana. If we were to go by current computer models, the heaviest axis of snow would run just south of St. Louis...eastward to Louisville and eastward from their to just south of Cincinatti. I'm just not buying this southern solution. With all that said, I would say areas across Northern Kentucky and extreme Southern Indiana may be looking at a more significant icing event, with heavy snow accumulating up to several inches across South Central Indiana. Again, this is my gut feeling along with experience from past winter storms.

I will be updating several times tonight, so STAY TUNED!

No comments: