Friday/Late Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected overnight***



After several days of model flip-flops, models are now beginning to come into agreement that a significant winter storm is on the way Monday night into Tuesday. Their are still several questions remaining including amounts, the exact track of the low, and where the heaviest precipitation will set-up. This one may FINALLY be the first significant winter storm after several storms missing us to the north this year. Their will be at least 2 pieces of energy that have increased potential to dump significant amounts of wintry precipitation. The first will be Monday night through Tuesday night. Right now precipitation looks to be mainly snow over Southern Indiana with a mix of sleet/freezing rain/snow across Northern/Western Kentucky. The potential for several inches of snow is possible over Southern Indiana with a little less over Northern/Western Kentucky due to sleet and freezing rain mixing in. Snow/ice amounts still are nearly impossible to pinpoint at this time. However, several inches of snow and ice seem very probable across Kentuckiana. Their is still quite a bit of uncertainity to how far north the precipitation will make it. Right now it looks like anywhere south of I 70 is in for a decent winter weather event. However, if models continue to agree with a suppressed solution, the main precipitation may be even further south than expected. This storm will considerably impact travel conditons Monday night into Tuesday night.

Here is a preliminary map of where the ice and snow may set up. Again this is subject for change...



Here are what different National Weather Services are saying across the region...

NWS in Indianapolis: A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...BUT RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NWS in Louisville: THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXISTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS A WAVE OF ENERGY RIDES THE FAST ZONE FLOW INTO THE OHIO VALLY. HOWEVER...MODELS REMAIN IN DISCORD OVER TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES. 12Z GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE WITH A COLDER THERMAL PROFILE WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE WAVE AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. LATEST ENSEMBLES OFFER A MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION SO WILL SIDE TOWARD THEM. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE 50 TO 60 POPS FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) AND A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION. 12Z GFS INDICATES NEGATIVE EPV OVER AN AXIS OF GOOD FRONTOGENESIS ACCORDING TO SPATIAL HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS...SO THERE ARE GOOD DYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...IT/S HARD TO PIN DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NWS in Paducah: LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY). WILL NOT ELABORATE ON SPECIFIC RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL DIFFERENCES BECAUSE THERE ARE TOO MANY TO DETAIL. HOWEVER...IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE HINTING AT TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO LATE TUESDAY. THE OTHER LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DURING THE FIRST EVENT...WARM AIR OVERRUNNING SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD LEAD TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN THE NORTH AND RAIN IN THE SOUTH.

Next storm looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday night. At this time it looks this one could also end up being a winter weather maker, however latest models have suggested that rain will be the dominate precipitation type. Still several days to watch this one so...STAY TUNED!