Wednesday/Late Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



Here is what a few National Weather Services are saying about early next week...

NWS in Indianapolis: EXTENDED...GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATRN. IT APPEARS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A SYSTEM WILL IMPACT INDIANA AT SOME POINT...BUT WHETHER THAT IS EARLY IN THE WEEK OR LATE IN THE WEEK OR SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IT HAS HERE AND WHETHER IT IS RAIN OR SNOW OR SOMETHING ELSE DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL OR ENSEMBLE AVERAGE YOU LOOK AT. WITH ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY AGREE WITH HPC ON MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO HPC NUMBERS. THIS YIELDS SMALL CHCS FOR SNOW FROM SUNDAY NT ON. FOR TEMPS HAVE CUT SOME FROM HPC NUMBERS DAYS 6 AND 7. NOT READY TO COMMIT TO WARMUP EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT/S ONLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUNS OF A COUPLE MODELS.

NWS in Louisville: STRONG WAVE OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIKELY END UP SENDING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EASTWARD WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THE SW WAVE AND THE STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO KEEP THESOUTHEAST RIDGE IN CHECK AND ALLOW THE SHALLOW PRE-EXISTING AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THE INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT. OVERALL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS KIND OF EVENT HAPPENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AND WHAT EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. OVERALL TRENDIN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH TEMPS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND RESULT IN MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT. GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME CHARTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE SPREAD IN PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL. SO WE HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TRENDED THINGS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DIMINISH A BIT AND POSSIBLY END BY WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPS...HAVE TRENDED THINGS CLOSE TO THE 12Z OP GFS AND THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMP FCST...BUT CARRIES GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO FCSTS.

NWS in Paducah: OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WE HAVE ZONAL OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW. THIS IS GIVING THE MODELS FITS AND THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES WILL BE LOCATED. WITH THIS PACKAGE BLENDED HPC...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLES. CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT TOO HIGH WITH THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME. ENSEMBLES SEEMED TO TOUCH ON PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AS THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW. AS USUAL...FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY SPLIT MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.

Even several National Weather Services continue to disagree with one another. NWS in Louisville hints at a decent event. National Weather Service in Paducah says "Otherwise chances of any significant precipitation is low". And the National Weather Service in Indianapolis pretty much says nothing. Their is a chance the "Main event" could be late next week instead of early next week and that would most likely be a rain event. That's not to say their wouldn't be snow Monday and Tuesday, but it would be of light variety. Their are a range of possibilities and this one will be very fun to track...stay tuned!