Monday/Tuesday system
It has been a day of watching the latest computer models and by no means are we even close to a solution for early next week. As mentioned in earlier posts, the precipitation threat for Monday night/Tuesday is beginning to increase. The problem that we will be trying to sort out the next couple of days is precipitation type. If we go by the majority of computer models today, snow lovers would be disappointed. The EURO has gone toward a Great Lakes Cutter solution while the GFS has the storm further south and a bit more QPF than yesterday. As you can see, computer models continue to flip-flop back and forth so were almost at the same place we were yesterday at this time. Looking at the meteorology, it would almost be impossible for a GLC due to the high pressure system in the North Central United States. I'm still going to stick with all snow for this system and their is still a decent shot at several inches. We will be closer to a solution tomorrow and models should diverge on a definite solution Saturday/Sunday. Below is what different National Weather Services are saying about this first storm system...
NWS in Louisville: THE NET RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL. THE 12Z ENSEMBLE PLUME DATA SHOWS BETTER TEMPORAL TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM ALL THE MODELS IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MOSTLY SNOW OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KY WITH A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. IF THE TEMPS TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WE COULD SEE MORE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
To see the full forecast discussion for NWS in Louisville click HERE
NWS in Indianapolis: MORE SIGNIFICANT ENERGY EJECTION AND RESULTANT WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEK STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN CONTINUED WIDE VARIATION IN MODELS AND THEIR OWN RUN TO RUN CHANGES. MERGING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOWS REMAINS QUESTION AND THIS IMPACTS HOW SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO OUR PART OF THE COUNRTY. LEANING TOWARDS EURO SOLUTION WHICH NOW SHOWS ITS OWN HINTS OF SOLUTION COMPARABLE TO GFS. GIVEN DIFFERENCES...CURRENT PCPN FCST STILL SEEMS TO BE PRETTY GOOD BUT PCPN TYPE AND AMOUNT STILL UNCERTAIN. PHASING OF FLOWS AND EJECTING WAVE OUR WAY FAVORS PRETTY DECENT SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING VERY MILD AIR VERY CLOSE...IF NOT INTO INDIANA. AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RAIN...AND/OR DECENT SNOW HERE OR NEAR HERE. SO FORECAST TO REMAIN AS CHANCE POPS AND MAINLY SNOW AS ALL MODELS SUGGEST ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH COULD BE A PREDOMINATING FEATURE AS SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM IMPINGES ON ITS SOUTH EDGE.
NWS in Paducah: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST (NEXT WEEK). CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH BRINGS GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP INTO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE SAME GENERAL TIME FRAME...12Z ECMWF IS NOW RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN GFS...WHICH IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THIS LEADS TO DIFFICULTY IN DECIDING PRECIP TYPE. AFTER LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...OVERALL LEANED TOWARD A WINTRY MIX FOR NOW...WHICH WILL NEED FINE TUNING AS THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS COME IN.
NWS in St. Louis: IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONGBAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER EVENT IS INCREASING AS 12Z ECWMF AND GFS FOCUSED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINTAINED BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. MANY QUESTIONS STILL EXIST AND MODEL CONTINUITY IS VERY POOR ON HOW FAST THE MEAN TROF WILL KICK EAST...BUT THIS PATTERN CERTAINLY BARES WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION IF THIS LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. WITH ANY LUCK THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO HIGH CHANCE.
Wednesday-Friday system
I'm not even going to try and say to much about this storm as the first storm still has a lot of question marks. However, it looks to be rain changing to snow, but again this is still several days away. Their is NO uncertainty that next week will be very active across the Ohio Valley Region! STAY TUNED!
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