Saturday/Very Early Morning

Don't know if anyone is up, but the latest numbers are in from the Storm Prediction Center for today's potential severe weather event. We are in the 15% risk area for wind and hail, and a 5% risk area for tornadoes. (Maps and discussion below)

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Today

TORNADO PROBABILITY-Today

DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY


SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY

SPC SAYS: AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ALONG/S OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM SRN IL/IND/OH INTO KY AND FAR N TN WILL BECOME MODESTLY UNSTABLE OWING TO UPR 50S SFC DEW POINTS AND HEATING. AS STRONGER PVA ARRIVES BY EARLY AFTN...STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG SRN/SERN FRINGES OF MORNING CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH SPORADIC LINEAR EVOLUTION...OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IN A ZONE N/NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IN SRN IND/NRN-CNTRL KY WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BETWEEN SFC-H5 WILL EXIST. RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV/KY/TN DURING THE EVENING AND WEAKEN.

I will be updating on here, and on TWITTER all day today as storms develop. I will answer any questions you have about the severe weather event tomorrow. Email me at pateo90@hotmail.com or drop me a comment on here.