SPC SAYS: TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING BENEATH A FAIRLY COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ...AND 40-50 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH...IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND INITIATION OF STORMS MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY NEAR/EAST OF LOUISVILLE. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OCCURS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE 23-00Z TIME FRAME. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT BEFORE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
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