Thursday/Early Morning

Quick update here...

Showers and even a few embedded thunderstorms are now moving from the southwest to the northeast across the region. None of these are severe, however a few lightning strikes are showing up so please be aware of that if outside.

The main area of rain and thunderstorms will pivot through the region tonight. I am not expecting any severe weather. In fact the SPC continues to push the SLIGHT RISK for severe weather further to our west...

The weekend system is looking more interesting. Two very popular models (EURO, GFS) now have a closed low moving just to the east of the Apps. If we see this consistency continue, Saturday night could get interesting, especially for those of you in Kentucky. Here is the latest AFD (Area Forecast Discussion) from the National Weather Service in Louisville...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN MOVING NE AND UP THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. DEEP H5 CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS THIS OCCURS SFC LOW QUICKLY POPS UP ACROSS MS/AL AND THEN HEADS OFF TO THE NE. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z EURO SOLUTION...BUT BOTH BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. A DETAILED LOOK AT THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA...STRONG NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS DOWN WELL BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE INCREASING 850 MB NE WIND ANOMALIES FROM CLIMO. WHEN THESE SHOW UP...TWO THINGS USUALLY OCCUR...FIRST THE 850MB NE FLOW KEEPS OUR TEMPERATURES COLD AND PREVENTS WAA FROM GETTING IN HERE. SECOND...THE 850MB FLOW USUALLY INCREASES THE BAROCLINIC FORCING FOR LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE MARCH 2008 SNOWSTORM FROM LAST YEAR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND EURO SHOW A NICE DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.