Kentuckiana Weather: Monday/Early Morning

Sorry I didn't post yesterday. It has been very busy with getting college stuff ready. I am trying to get it done sooner, so I won't be as stressed out when I began to move away from my hometown.

Anyhow, we have a very interesting/potentially dangerous situation setting up for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. The main action will be to our west Wednesday morning, but as time wears on thunderstorms will begin to intensify rapidly as they move into Illinois by afternoon/evening. The main question is instability and how far north will the stream of unstable air make it. This is why the Storm Prediction Center is holding back a bit on higher percentages for the DAY 3 outlook. Yesterday we were placed in the 30% risk area and now it has been lowered a bit. After looking at latest model analysis, we shouldn't have any problems with instability. Dew points in the middle 50's to near 60 will stretch as far north as Indianapolis, and potentially even further north from their. In conclusion, I believe we are dealing with a potentially widespread damaging wind event beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday night across the entire Ohio Valley Region. If any discrete cells can develop ahead of the front, isolated tornadoes will also be a possibility. We have unusually warm air for this time of year combined with a very strong jet stream and I believe enough instability will be available to get things going. I would not be suprised to see a MODERATE RISK placed across some part of our region either later tomorrow or on Wednesday. The latest maps and SPC severe weather discussion for Wednesday are below...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DAY 3-Wednesday

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF EXPECTED FORCING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THAT COULD PRECLUDE...OR AT LEAST LIMIT...PRE-FRONTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ...AND ALLOW FOR THE REALIZATION OF ONLY VERY WEAK CAPE--ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG--WHERE THE FRONT STRONGLY FORCES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THIS COULD MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...AND PERHAPS THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO EXIST WITH AN ANTICIPATED FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE...PARTS OF INDIANA AND OHIO.

(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK