Tuesday/Mid Evening

WEATHER CODE: RED ***High winds NOT associated with thunderstorms, then the potential for a severe weather outbreak tomorrow***



I decided to go with a code RED, due to the potential for a widespread severe weather event, and already high winds that will be associated out ahead of any thunderstorm activity...

A very active day on tap for tomorrow. A very strong 70 knot jet stream will be planted across the region, and this will give way to very high winds beginning late morning and continuing through tomorrow evening. The entire region has been placed under a HIGH WIND WARNING. Wind gusts as high as 60 MPH will be possible tomorrow with sustained winds around 40 MPH, and again this is NOT associated with thunderstorm activity. These winds may very well cause some major problems across the entire region. With the ice storm a couple of weeks ago, power grids are just now beginning to recover, and are still weak at this time. With the wet ground and the already weak power grids, we may be looking at several power outages tomorrow. This will be due to mainly tree limbs or whole trees falling into these powerlines. All in all a very dangerous situation setting up tomorrow as the NON-thunderstorm wind gusts push through the region.

Now, if this isn't enough, we have to talk about the potential for a severe weather outbreak...

Here are the latest risk/probability maps from the Storm Prediction Center

RISK MAP



PROBABILISTIC MAP



LATEST SPC DISCUSSION FOR DAY 2: FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD...SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 50KT...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE WILL EMERGE ALONG SHARP BOUNDARY FROM IL INTO WRN TN EARLY...THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO WRN PA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

MY CURRENT THINKING: The Storm Prediction Center had a 45% area with the morning update from the Ohio River and on south into Tennessee. Now with today's afternoon update, they cut back a bit and went back to a 30% for the entire region. I really think the SPC may be downplaying the severe weather threat for tomorrow. We have an unusually warm air mass with the best atmospheric dynamics I've seen for the month of Febuary. Instability may be the only problem, but that is even starting to look like it will also be in the game. I think parts of the area will be upgraded to a moderate risk with the morning update. A dry slot is really beginning to show up on the latest model trends for tomorrow morning. This may allow for a few hours of sunshine in the morning, and if this does happen...get ready folks it's going to be a rough one! It would not suprise me to see some storms have winds in excess of 80 MPH. Even without the sunshine, a nasty line of thunderstorms will still form, but the severe weather may not be as widespread. However, with the area already suffering from high non-thunderstorm when gusts tomorrow...any severe weather would not aid to our already wind savaged/ice savaged area. Please keep it tuned here tomorrow, as I will be doing as many updates as time allows. STAY TUNED!