Monday/1:00PM

WEATHER CODE: SLIGHT ***Slight risk of severe weather***



Ok focus will be on potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening...

The Storm Prediction Center has posted a good portion of the region in a SLIGHT RISK for severe for this afternoon and evening. (See graphics and text below) The atmosphere has destabilized quite rapidly with sun pretty widespread across the area. Storms will develop over Central Illinois in a couple of hours, then push east and southeast into the region by late afternoon and early evening. Best threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. There is potential for an isolated tornado, especially across Central Indiana. Please monitor the weather situation throughout the afternoon and evening. Other probabilities are 2% tornado (in Central Indiana) 15% wind and 15% hail. More later...



SPC SAYS: SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM NRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...REGIONS OF CLOUDS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAVE INHIBITED DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI INTO IL AND NRN MO. STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM INDIANA AND OH WITH INDICATION OF A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM EXTREME SERN LOWER MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL SPEEDS OF 30-40 KT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS WITH OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.