WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***
We are getting a much needed break weatherwise after showers and thunderstorms moved through the region yesterday. Temperatures today will rise into the upper 50's and lower 60's region wide with sunny skies. We are looking at a GREAT Easter, with temperatures in the lower and middle 60's and again sunny skies!
Enjoy though, because showers and thunderstorms will return Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the entire region in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. (Latest maps and discussion from Storm Prediction Center below) Several ingredients are present in the latest forecast soundings. This includes a pretty decent set-up for supercelluar thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and tornadoes. Instability is still in question, however the latest soundings have began to increase the moisture influx across the region. The SPC has the area in a 15% risk area, however I believe this will be bumped up to at least a 30% risk area by tomorrow. All in all, we will have to keep an eye on things Monday, as even more severe weather will threaten the region.
DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Monday
DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY OUTLOOK-Monday
SPC SAYS: FARTHER NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/SFC LOW INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION FROM SRN IL INTO SRN IND. MODELS INSIST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM NERN LA/WRN MS INTO SRN IL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE THAN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS CAN UNDERCUT H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -20C. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE...WILL LIKELY EVOLVE IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WRN MS INTO SRN IL BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES/TN VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING.
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