Saturday: 4-4/Mid Afternoon

Here are the latest AFD's (Area Forecast Discussions) from the National Weather Services in Louisville, Central Illinois, Northern Indiana, Paducah, and Wilmington

Concerning severe weather potential tomorrow afternoon/evening...

NWS in Louisville: SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE IT/S WAY EAST TO CENTRAL IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN A QUASI LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION WITH CELLULAR STRUCTURES ALONG IT/S COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY START OUT ELEVATED OVER IA/IL SUN MORNING...THEY WILL BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO KY/IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND LONG THIN CAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG IN SUPPORT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE ANTICIPATED. PRIME TIME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) WILL BE FROM 21Z SUN TO 5Z MON.

NWS in Central Illinois: SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS OUR SE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ENOUGH ROTATIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS FOR SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS...SO ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

NWS in Northern Indiana: LATE SUNDAY MORNING/SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH THE GFS/NAM ADVERTISE THAT A CONNECTION TO THE GULF GETS ESTABLISHED...WITH 1 INCH PWATS RACING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 18Z AHEAD OF THE UPPERWAVE. THIS ADDED MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE/H850 LOW WILL HELP SPAWN A BLOSSOMING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED. FURTHER NORTH...IN OUR AREA..AS THIS MOISTURE LIFTS OVER THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT PRECIPRATES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LITTLE/NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THUNDER A GOOD BET GIVEN SHOWALTERS AROUND -2 TO-4C AND ELEVATED CAPES OF 100-300 J/KG OVER MY SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.

NWS in Paducah: THE FOCUSED LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LAYER DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE MOST LIKELY INITIATION ZONE FOR ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTION WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY START ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 57...SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN INTERSTATE 55 IN SERN MO AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 16Z /11 AM CDT/. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER 60+ DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY BY AFTERNOON...BUT MODEST DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE MID 50S WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ALONG AND EAST OF THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES...GIVEN THE 40-50 BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE 0-6KM LAYER. THE GFS SUGGEST THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY. THE SHEAR WILL BE THE KEY FOR PINPOINTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR INITIALLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...TIMING WILL CRITICAL FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NWS in Wilmington: AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE DIGGING MEAN TROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW TOMORROW EVENING AS IT TRACKS INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...AND MAY SET THE STATE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...WHICH BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE FORECASTING TO BE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. NEED TO LOOK AS FAR AS EAST TX BEFORE YOU FIND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...SO NOT SURE THAT MOISTURE WILL HAVE TIME TO MAKE IT THIS FAR. LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CAPE WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT CONFINED PRIMARILY TO STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...DESPITE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED DEEP FRONTOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NORTHERN CWA FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT.