Focus will be on potential for severe weather outbreak Saturday...
It ended up being a rather nice day across all of Kentuckiana as this mornings system pushed off to the east. Temperatures rebounded into the lower 60's north and middle 60's south.
Tomorrow will be a rather damp and cloudy day. Skies will start off cloudy in the morning, then as the next system begins to churn in the Plain States, isolated showers will develop, but they will be few and far between. Highs tomorrow won't warm above todays temps, because of the clouds and isolated rain showers. Highs will range from the lower 60's north with middle 60's south.
As we experience rather calm conditions tomorrow, a severe weather outbreak will be in full swing across the southern states. In fact, as you can see below, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Northern Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas, Southwest Tennessee, and Northern Alabama in a MODERATE RISK for severe weather. The best threat for tornadoes will be in the 45% hatched area with widespread damaging winds outside of that. Their may be some isolated severe weather across our southern viewing area tomorrow (Southern/Central Kentucky) so this is something we will have to watch as things begin to pop tomorrow afternoon and evening. Any storms that do develop tomorrow south of the Ohio River will have the potential to produce large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Those of you that live in the south, please monitor the weather situation tomorrow afternoon and evening. This looks to be the largest tornado outbreak we have seen so far this year.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Friday
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK-Friday
This whole system has it's eyes set on the Kentuckiana region, and will have the potential to spark yet another severe weather outbreak Saturday afternoon and evening. Below you will see the latest DAY 3 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. We have been highlighted in the 30% risk which is a high level SLIGHT RISK. Lot's of important factors are coming together for a large scale severe weather event. This includes the VERY IMPRESSIVE wind fields that will be present along with the strength of the low (990 MB). Things that are working against severe weather, especially in Southern Indiana is the placement of the warm front and the low. The further south the storm tracks, the further south the instability will be. However, the latest model runs have began to place the center of the storm slightly north and to the west. What this would mean is an increased threat of severe weather for a good chunk of the region. Right now I would place the best threat for severe weather including a few strong tornadoes from Southeastern Indiana, south and east from their into Eastern Kentucky and Southwestern Ohio. If the latest model analysis is correct, areas north of this will also have the potential for widespread severe weather as well. All in all, a nasty severe weather event looks likely. We will have to continue to monitor the placement of the warm front as we may see a few tornadoes (some strong) along this boundary. Areas further north (South Central/Central Indiana, Central Ohio) will see AT LEAST some isolated severe weather as the cold front crosses the state by mid-afternoon on Saturday. I will have much more tomorrow. The next SPC update will be out very early tomorrow morning...stay tuned!
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Saturday
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK-Saturday
.jpg)
No comments:
Post a Comment