Friday/Mid Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected***



Focus will be on severe weather potential and warm up next week...

It is another sunny, but cooler day across Kentuckiana with temperatures in Southern Indiana in the lower 50's with middle 50's across Northern and Central Kentucky. If your looking to go fishing or hiking...this will be a great weekend to do so. Temperatures tomorrow will warm into the middle 50's north and the upper 50's south. Even warmer for Sunday with temperatures topping out in the lower 60's.

This will be the start of a nice warm up as the jet stream begins to lift north beginning tomorrow. By Monday we will be in the warm sector as a storm system really get's cranking over the Central Plain States. This will be the beginning of what could be a 2-3 day severe weather outbreak.

As you can see below the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has placed a good chunk of the Central Plains and the Ozarks in a 30% risk for DAY 4 (Monday) and DAY 5 (Tuesday). Usually, when the SPC puts a risk out this far in advance...a nasty outbreak of severe weather is expected. And, looking at the latest computer models, I can see why the risk is warranted.



The latest satellite imagery below is just now beginning to show the storm system. As you can see, there are two spinning vortices. The first one you see to the northwest of California...that is the storm system that will affect us by Midweek. The other storm system in the far northwestern part of the satellite image will play a role in our weather by late next week.



DISCUSSION: The first two rounds of severe weather will be to our west (Monday and Tuesday). The cold front will then slide through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. So our first shot at any severe weather will be late Tuesday night and potentially Wednesday afternoon, depending on the position of the front. Their are several ingredients that are pointing toward severe weather, but others against. The potential for severe weather will be increased Tuesday night and Wednesday due to the following...1) The intensity of the front...2) Very strong wind fields that are present in several computer models...3) The amount of energy is obviously off the charts with the strength of the low. Their are however a few things working against the potential for severe weather...1) Thunderstorms to the south may rob us from encountering the rich/unstable moisture...2) The timing of the storms looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, which would limit instability. However, the GFS has slowed the progression of the frontal passage until Wednesday afternoon, which would further increase the potential for severe weather.

MY CURRENT ANALYSIS: Severe weather is just like predicting snow, if not even more difficult. Several ingredients can be there for severe weather, but sometimes if your missing even 1...the severe weather does not materialize. As meteorologists/weather forecasters...we look for several ingredients and we look at the upper air features. After looking at all of this I would say we will have at least some isolated severe weather beginning Tuesday night and lasting through Wednesday afternoon. The coverage of the severe weather will be increased IF computer models begin to slow down the progression of the front. This would allow the front to pass through Wednesday afternoon...a time in which the atmosphere will be volitale. We will also have to monitor the coverage/severity of storms to our south. If storms blossom there, which I expect...that may also limit the coverage of severe weather here. Any severe weather that does develop will have the potential to produce damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. I will continue to monitor the situation over the next few days, and have more for you as we get closer to the actual event. Please continue to listen to your local media stations as well as updates from the National Weather Service. Everyone have a safe and God blessed day!