Thursday/5:20PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



Dry--that's been the popular word, lately, weatherwise across the Wabash and Ohio Valley Region. However, finally, some rain is beginning to enter the picture this evening. A pesky low pressure system that has been spawning showers and thunderstorms well to our south is now beginning to push a bit further north and the showers have made it into the southern parts of the viewing area now. (Southern Kentucky) This low will begin to push even further north over the weekend and by Saturday night and Sunday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the area.

On Monday a cold front will enter the region, this should bring a decent line of showers and thunderstorms, once again, into the region. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected, however a few isolated severe storms are certainly possible due to the potency of the front. If models continue to agree, Tuesday may also be another wet day as the front hangs across the Ohio and Wabash Valleys.

Computer models are still advertising a big cool down, but now they don't have it starting until early next week. We've seen the models pick up on a big cool down the last month or so, and it always get's pushed further back. However, as far as I'm concerned, fall temperatures can still be expected by the first weekend of fall. I'll be fine tuning this for you as we get closer.

For those of you from my hometown in Seymour, Indiana, your 7 day forecast is below.



WHAT'S YOUR FAVORITE THING ABOUT FALL?



Yesterday, I asked people on my facebook what their favorite thing about fall was. Here is some of the responses...

Todd says: The second tornado season
Kristin says: Bon fires and Chili
Alex says: Thanksgiving
Bevin says: Leaves and fresh air
Jordan says: All the colorful nature and the Oktoberfest (in Seymour)
John says: The cool temperatures
Charis says: Cool temps and pretty colors and it smells nice too!
Cassie says: Leaves falling off the trees
Katherine says: The wonderful weather
Pegi says: The most I enjoy about fall are the sounds of crickets, apple picking, cooler weather, wearing sweaters, and being able to be outside more walking especially through the fallen leaves.

Bethany says: I love all the beautiful fall colors!
Dawna says: apple cider, blustery stormy nights, the smell of woodsmoke hanging in the chilly night air....and taking walks after a storm and seeing the miniature fall leaves, perfectly formed-perfectly colored, pasted to the sidewalk by the deluge.
My mom says: Hearing your dad complain about all the leaves to rake! NOT!

-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Wednesday/12:15PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



Another dry day is on tap across the region with sunny skies and temperatures in the lower and middle 80's.

Showers and thunderstorms still look to be on the increase as we enter the Sunday/Monday time frame. Models are still trying to iron out how much moisture will be available these two days. I'll fine tune the forecast this evening. As advertised yesterday, the big cool down looks to be on the way by the middle of next week. How cool is still the big question. Just taking a peak at the models, we may have a few days with highs in the middle 60's and lows in the lower 40's! I'll have a full update tonight along with the tropical forecast! Everyone have a God blessed day!

Tuesday/3:30PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



It was another dry and warm day across the Wabash and Ohio Valley Region, and this should continue for a majority of the week. However, changes are ahead, and right in time for the Fall season to officially kick into gear. As you know, we have a had a very cool summer. In fact it was the 34th coolest summer in the United States since they started keeping weather data. Pretty impressive to say the least.

Before we talk about the cooler weather that is expected, let's talk about what is going to be ushering in the cooler air. A very potent cold front is expected to settle into the region by Sunday and Monday. There a couple of differences in the computer models when it comes to timing, but a majority do have precipitation. In fact, looking at some of the dynamics associated with this storm system, wouldn't be suprised to see a round of severe weather.

NWS in Louisville says: AS THE FIRST WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...STRONG H5 TROF IS FCST TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...AND A ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

As mentioned above this front will bring some cooler weather into the Wabash and Ohio Valley's. How cool will it get? Well right now, middle 70's for highs and lows in the upper 50's to lower 60's look likely.

Late next week, which, I know, is still several days away, models are beginning to pin-point a more intense cool down.

NWS in LOUISVILLE SAYS: BEYOND THE FCST PD...THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP A VERY LARGE UPPER TROF CENTERED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE TROF AXIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH IT PIVOTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT FRIDAY. H5 HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 2 STD BELOW NORMAL...WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 0. THE 15/12Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE...SO A SHOT AT SOME UPPER 30/LOWER 40S IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEK TO HELP USHER IN THE FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

I'm not going to jump on this bandwagon quite yet, but it's quite possible we may need our coats late next week. I'll have more tomorrow about severe weather chances, and an update on this potential big time cool down. Have a God blessed night!

Thursday/12:00AM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE

Even though its not quite Thursday until another 40 minutes, I'm going to act as if it is...

Another dry day on tap for today, however some patchy fog is already developing and will continue to develop through the early morning hours. Some of the fog will be fairly dense in isolated areas, so please use caution if your going out this early morning. Looks like, now, the dry weather will continue through the weekend with near normal temperatures.

Mr. Fred has now been downgraded to a category 2 hurricane. (Current track below) It was a category 3 earlier today. It will take a westward movement in about 4 days, but by this time it may only be a remnant low. We'll have to watch this to see if it can get its act together once again.

Got this off of Belski's blog. I believe the guy that made this forecast is on the ACCUWEATHER forums. Anyhow, here is his winter forecast, so far. click... HERE

Everyone have a God blessed night!