Tuesday/3:30PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



It was another dry and warm day across the Wabash and Ohio Valley Region, and this should continue for a majority of the week. However, changes are ahead, and right in time for the Fall season to officially kick into gear. As you know, we have a had a very cool summer. In fact it was the 34th coolest summer in the United States since they started keeping weather data. Pretty impressive to say the least.

Before we talk about the cooler weather that is expected, let's talk about what is going to be ushering in the cooler air. A very potent cold front is expected to settle into the region by Sunday and Monday. There a couple of differences in the computer models when it comes to timing, but a majority do have precipitation. In fact, looking at some of the dynamics associated with this storm system, wouldn't be suprised to see a round of severe weather.

NWS in Louisville says: AS THE FIRST WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...STRONG H5 TROF IS FCST TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...AND A ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

As mentioned above this front will bring some cooler weather into the Wabash and Ohio Valley's. How cool will it get? Well right now, middle 70's for highs and lows in the upper 50's to lower 60's look likely.

Late next week, which, I know, is still several days away, models are beginning to pin-point a more intense cool down.

NWS in LOUISVILLE SAYS: BEYOND THE FCST PD...THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP A VERY LARGE UPPER TROF CENTERED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE TROF AXIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH IT PIVOTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT FRIDAY. H5 HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 2 STD BELOW NORMAL...WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 0. THE 15/12Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE...SO A SHOT AT SOME UPPER 30/LOWER 40S IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEK TO HELP USHER IN THE FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

I'm not going to jump on this bandwagon quite yet, but it's quite possible we may need our coats late next week. I'll have more tomorrow about severe weather chances, and an update on this potential big time cool down. Have a God blessed night!