Monday/Late Evening

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Thunderstorms possible overnight across Southern/Central Indiana***



I want to be quick and short about overnight, as the main forecast challenge will be on tomorrow's potential severe weather outbreak.

Showers and thunderstorms currently in Kansas/Missouri will likely move into portions of Indiana by morning. The best threat for widespread thunderstorm activity will be in Central Indiana. Isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire area by tomorrow morning.

POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING

SEVERE SET-UP:A potentially dangerous day is setting up tomorrow afternoon and evening. A very potent southern low pressure system will ride along a frontal boundary tomorrow, triggering the development of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. CAPE values from 2000 to 4000 j/kg, LI's from -4 to -8, and at least marginal upper level wind shear should easily support severe storms tomorrow. Only ingredient lacking, as usual, is instability. The current MCS over Kansas/Missouri will cover the area with clouds/debris in the morning, potentially lasting into the early afternoon. This would limit instability fairly substantially. However, it is not known how strong the storms will be and how widespread the cloud cover will be tomorrow morning. We will have to watch radar trends overnight to see how much the storms weaken. Even IF sun does not come out tomorrow, everything else is in place.

WHAT DO I THINK: I believe sun is a pretty good bet sometime tomorrow morning. The current MCS will have pushed through by mid morning, leaving us with partly sunny skies by late morning or early afternoon. Storms will develop to the west and southwest by mid to late afternoon and really begin to gain steam as they push east and northeast. The potential for a widespread damaging wind event (potentially a derecho) is increasing for tomorrow. A secondary threat would be large hail, and then an isolated tornado could not be ruled out. I urge you to monitor the weather tomorrow. This is potentially a very dangerous situation, with the potential for loss of lives, if warnings are not taken seriously. On the next post I will show you the current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday. STAY TUNED!