NEW BLOG COMING

Ok this is my last post on this blog. The new website address is www.inkyweather.blogspot.com

Me and Forecaster Erik Dean are leading this up! Enjoy the new blog!

Tuesday/Early Afternoon

Sorry it has been a while since I posted. Our youth group took a trip to Alabama for a Christian conference. It was amazing! God poured out His healing, deliverence, and love. Thank you God!

Just another hot day today with temperatures in the upper 80's to lower 90's region wide. Heat indices will be near 100. Bring lot's of water, and sun tan lotion if your going outside!

I just got my wisdom teeth out this morning so I am in a bit of pain and fairly tired. Everyone have a God blessed day and night!

Tuesday/12:05 PM

A new SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for areas along and west of I65. This does include Louisville.

Storms are beginning to gain steam in Southern Illinois, and will continue to do so. The best severe weather threat will be along and south of the Ohio River. The best threat with these storms will be damaging winds. New SPC update out in about 20 minutes. I will post then.

Monday/Late Evening

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Thunderstorms possible overnight across Southern/Central Indiana***



I want to be quick and short about overnight, as the main forecast challenge will be on tomorrow's potential severe weather outbreak.

Showers and thunderstorms currently in Kansas/Missouri will likely move into portions of Indiana by morning. The best threat for widespread thunderstorm activity will be in Central Indiana. Isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire area by tomorrow morning.

POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING

SEVERE SET-UP:A potentially dangerous day is setting up tomorrow afternoon and evening. A very potent southern low pressure system will ride along a frontal boundary tomorrow, triggering the development of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. CAPE values from 2000 to 4000 j/kg, LI's from -4 to -8, and at least marginal upper level wind shear should easily support severe storms tomorrow. Only ingredient lacking, as usual, is instability. The current MCS over Kansas/Missouri will cover the area with clouds/debris in the morning, potentially lasting into the early afternoon. This would limit instability fairly substantially. However, it is not known how strong the storms will be and how widespread the cloud cover will be tomorrow morning. We will have to watch radar trends overnight to see how much the storms weaken. Even IF sun does not come out tomorrow, everything else is in place.

WHAT DO I THINK: I believe sun is a pretty good bet sometime tomorrow morning. The current MCS will have pushed through by mid morning, leaving us with partly sunny skies by late morning or early afternoon. Storms will develop to the west and southwest by mid to late afternoon and really begin to gain steam as they push east and northeast. The potential for a widespread damaging wind event (potentially a derecho) is increasing for tomorrow. A secondary threat would be large hail, and then an isolated tornado could not be ruled out. I urge you to monitor the weather tomorrow. This is potentially a very dangerous situation, with the potential for loss of lives, if warnings are not taken seriously. On the next post I will show you the current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday. STAY TUNED!

Thursday/Late Afternoon

SPC is considering WATCH for areas along and west of interstate 65. New WARNING just issued for Vincennes, Indiana.

Thursday/Mid Afternoon

Get ready for another rocky afternoon and evening, as more showers and thunderstorms are developing to our west in Southern Illinois. They are beginning to gain strength and coverage, and it's a good bet one or two will go severe. Whether or not the SPC will issue a WATCH at this time, is pretty sketchy. No Mesoscale Discussions have been issued for the area...yet. However, I do expect that to change if storms begin to increase in strength and coverage, which they are currently doing. We still have a very unstable airmass and the sun has been out for about 1 hour now so the atmosphere will continue to destabilize.

Dew points are in the 70's and CAPE values up to about 1,500 now...

Thursday/12:15 AM

NEW TORNADO WATCH for All of Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. This DOES include the Louisville Metro area. Storms are developing fairly rapidy. Any discrete cell that develops may go supercelluar quickly.

Wednesday/Late Afternoon

Storms are now popping in South East Illinois. Cloud tops up to about 40,000 FT with some up to 45,000 FT. (Radar image below) If these begin to strengthen and increase in coverage, a NEW WATCH may be needed...stay tuned!

Wednesday/Early Afternoon

WEATHER STOPLIGHT: YELLOW ***Storms return this afternoon, with isolated severe possible***

Thanks to Erik Dean for the new weather stoplight(s). Everytime I ask him to help me out on something, he is willing to do so! Thank you Erik!

The latest SPC outlook is out and the SLIGHT risk area has been pushed further south along and south of the Ohio River. I don't disagree alot with the Storm Prediction Center, however this time, I will. Lot's of clearing to our west, and we should see several hours of sun. The atmosphere will recover, and severe storms should develop to our west in Southern Illinois. Storms will then push into Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky later this evening between 6 and 10 PM from west to east. This WILL NOT be a widespread severe weather event, however scattered severe storms look fairly likely. Storms that do go severe will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Again, I am NOT disagreeing with the SPC as far as coverage of severe weather. The southern shift of the SLIGHT RISK area is what I disagree with. If you want to see the latest maps from the SPC, it is below this text. Be mindful of the weather situation later this afternoon into the nighttime hours. I will update throughout today on TWITTER and on here if needed. Stay tuned!

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Today

Wind and hail probabilities are 15%. Tornado probabilities are 2%

Wednesday/Very Early Morning

I don't know if anyone is up, but thought I would share a bit of data with you.

CAPE or (Convective Available Potential Energy) is a huge factor in the development of severe weather. The higher the CAPE, the more likely severe weather will develop.

You might ask...How high does the CAPE need to be for the development of severe weather?

500-1000 j/g is enough to set off severe storms, IF other parameters are in place.

Anything above 1,500 is prime for severe weather development, again, IF other parameters are also in place. For severe weather to occur, several factors must come together, and IF one is missing, it can be a bust, or a disappointment. Well, a dissappointment for those of us that like severe weather...

After looking at the latest CAPE that is expected tomorrow (according to the GFS) I was impressed. (Latest map below) CAPE of 2500-3500 is depicted by the GFS across the entire region. This is very favorable for severe weather.To learn more about CAPE click...HERE

I will be rolling through different severe weather terms tomorrow, as I try and explain to you the developing severe weather situation or the already developing severe weather situation.

Tuesday/Late Evening

Sorry, something came up, and I just got home about 20 minutes ago.

I'm just now running through some of the latest data for tomorrow. The setup continues to look fairly impressive minus the instability/cloud debris.

Most are asleep now, so I will have a full update tomorrow morning on the severe weather threat. By then, new SPC maps/discussion will be available. I will also give you my take on the situation. I urge everyone to have they're NOAA weather radio handy tomorrow. It has saved countless lives, and may one day, save yours.

More tomorrow...

Tuesday/Mid Afternoon

Not lot's of changes in the latest SPC outlook for tomorrow, however, it was suppressed a tad bit more south than the previous outlook.

The potential for a large severe weather event is increasing for the Ohio Valley Region tomorrow. I believe the Storm Prediction Center is playing it safe with the 15% risk area. This may be because they are worried about potential debris from the decaying MCS that will be arriving here in the morning hours. However, I've been looking at the latest analysis and ingredients are coming together nicely for a decent severe weather event tomorrow afternoon and evening. Their has been some debate about where the low will track and presently it's expected to track across Central Indiana which bullseye's our region for potential severe weather.

I am going to have a very long post discussing details later tonight and I expect to make up some maps and probabilities of my own...stay tuned!

Tuesday/Early Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible***

Still don't have the weather stoplight. Im working on transfering it from my desktop to my laptop.

Very "noisy" days are ahead across the Ohio Valley as bouts of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region. Below is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Areas along and west of the Ohio River will have the best threat of any thunderstorms going severe today. A strong CAP across this region may limit the severity and coverage of severe weather, however isolated severe weather is looking pretty likely with LI's from -5 to -11, and steep low- level lapse rates.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Today

Tomorrow I expect a more widespread severe weather event event to unfold, as an MCS or MCS's march west from the Plains into the Ohio Valley/Midwest. (Latest maps and discussion below). After looking at the latest forecast soundings/models, a pretty decent set-up is in place for severe weather, however instability may pose a problem. We will likely have left over clouds and maybe a few showers in the morning through the afternoon. This may limit overall instability as storms move into our region during the evening and nighttime hours. However, pretty decent severe weather parameters are in place to overcome what could only be "marginal" destabilization. All in all, I do expect severe storms to hold their own, as MCS's can track hundreds of miles. Exact timing of these storms is harder to pinpoint, however computer models are leaning more toward a nighttime event. Best threats with these storms as they move through will be large hail (quarter size or potentially larger) and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Tomorrow

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY-Tomorrow

A new update from the Storm Prediction Center will be available in about one hour for tomorrow's severe weather event. I'll update then if maps or discussion change, which I expect it to! More later!

Sunday/Early Evening

New SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for Central/Southern Illinois and Central and Southeastern Missouri.

Storms are developing rapidly. Storms are already producing large hail and damaging winds, particulary with the storm just north of the St. Louis Metro. These storms will most likely maintain their strength and increase in coverage as they near our region. I expect storms to congeal into more of a line as they head eastward. Main severe weather threat will be damaging winds and large hail as they enter Kentuckiana.

Monday/Late Afternoon

Storms are firing in Northern Illinois and Lower Michigan, and WATCHES are going up in that particular area.

Still waiting for storms to fire further south into Western Illinois. When these storms develop, these will be the storms that will have the potential to affect the local area later this evening. Severe weather parameters look great out to the west so storms should begin to pop in the next 1 to 2 hours.

More later...

Monday/Early Afternoon

Focus is on potential for severe weather later this afternoon...

Whats left of the thunderstorms that produced golf ball sized hail in St. Louis is now moving in our direction. It continues to weaken, and clearing skies are developing across a good chunk of Illinois and Southern Indiana. The key question yesterday was instability, and that question has been answered. Dew points are currently in the mid 60's across the region, with even higher dew points to the west.

The cold front is beginning to push into far western Illinois. This will be the energy that sets off a round of showers and thunderstorms which will quickly become severe. (The latest SPC map is below)

And in fact the Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion for most of Illinois and far Western Indiana. (Latest Map below) A WATCH may soon be issued for this area...

More soon...

Sunday/Late Evening

The image below (which is a current storm in Northwestern Missouri) is an example of what I will be showing you when their is a supercell or very dangerous storm in the area. I have some new software and it will be really fun to get to use it tomorrow, as the threat for severe weather is there. I hope you enjoy the new features just as I do. (You can click on the image for a larger view)

Sunday/Mid Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***No hazardous weather expected today or tonight***

Focus will be on potential for severe weather tomorrow...

Temperatures region wide are in the middle 80's as of 2:30. Still may see temperatures rise a couple of more degrees, which will top temperatures out into the upper 80's.

Tomorrow we will pay for the warmer weather with showers and thunderstorms that will develop along a cold front by late afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will become severe with the main threat being be large hail and damaging winds. (Latest maps and discussion below) However, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Right now the best threat for severe weather appears to be I65 and on to the west and southwest. Our southern Indiana counties have the best shot at seeing some nasty storms tomorrow night. Would not be suprised to see parts of Western Indiana and Illinois upgraded to a moderate risk tomorrow. The latest models/soundings suggest the potential is increasing for very large hail (quarter size or larger) in that area.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Monday



SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY



SPC SAYS: THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE RISK ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/MO/INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A MIXED MODE OF SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE AN EVOLUTION TO MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/SMALL BOWING COMPLEXES SEEMS LIKELY. SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR VEERING/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW...A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA...AND POTENTIALLY INTO LOWER MI IN VICINITY OF NORTHWARD RETREATING WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. IN ADDITION TO LOWER MI...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN KY AND WESTERN OH MONDAY NIGHT.

Saturday/Late Morning

I am updating from my new dell laptop! Very nice! Its my graduation gift.

Some sad news to report to you. I spoke to Ball State on Friday and they denied me for admission into their college. I was very disappointed, however, God has a different plan. What that plan is? I am not sure.

Don't have the weather stoplight right now, because I am on the laptop.

It's going to be another beautiful day day today with sunny skies and highs in the middle and upper 80's.

Temperatures will approach the lower 90's tomorrow region wide. A cold front is on it's way and will spark a line of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these could be severe. Iwill have a complete update later this afternoon with maps and discussion!

Monday/Early Evening

WEATHER CODE: GREEN ***Only showers and thunderstorms expected will be over N. Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois. Dry weather tonight across Kentuckiana***

This will be my last update until Sunday evening. I am going on vacation, and won't be back until then. The following links below will keep you updated on the weather.

Belski

NWS

accuweather

Showers and thunderstorms continue over Northern Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois this evening. There are severe thunderstorm watches up that way, and their have been several warnings. It was a very warm and nearly hot and humid day across the region with many areas topping the upper 80's. Tomorrow will easily be the hottest day of the year with temperatures between 90 and 93 region wide! Remember to drink plenty of water if your going to be outside! Their will be a slight chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, however the better chance for rain comes Wednesday afternoon and evening as a frontal boundary which is currently sparking thunderstorms to our north drops south. Would not be suprised if we saw some severe weather with the very humid and unstable air mass which will be in place. John Belski is also on vacation, so he may not have many updates. However, the National Weather Service (NWS) is the best place to go for severe weather information and current warnings/watches. I suggest this link throughout the week. On a normal week I would refer you to John from WAVE 3, but again, he is on vacation. Drier and less humid weather will arrive Thursday through Saturday with temperatures in the middle and upper 70's. Only a slight chance for a thunderstorm is possible on Saturday/Saturday night.

My next update will be Sunday evening, June the 7th, until then, everyone have a God blessed week!