Tuesday/Early Afternoon

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible***

Still don't have the weather stoplight. Im working on transfering it from my desktop to my laptop.

Very "noisy" days are ahead across the Ohio Valley as bouts of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region. Below is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Areas along and west of the Ohio River will have the best threat of any thunderstorms going severe today. A strong CAP across this region may limit the severity and coverage of severe weather, however isolated severe weather is looking pretty likely with LI's from -5 to -11, and steep low- level lapse rates.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Today

Tomorrow I expect a more widespread severe weather event event to unfold, as an MCS or MCS's march west from the Plains into the Ohio Valley/Midwest. (Latest maps and discussion below). After looking at the latest forecast soundings/models, a pretty decent set-up is in place for severe weather, however instability may pose a problem. We will likely have left over clouds and maybe a few showers in the morning through the afternoon. This may limit overall instability as storms move into our region during the evening and nighttime hours. However, pretty decent severe weather parameters are in place to overcome what could only be "marginal" destabilization. All in all, I do expect severe storms to hold their own, as MCS's can track hundreds of miles. Exact timing of these storms is harder to pinpoint, however computer models are leaning more toward a nighttime event. Best threats with these storms as they move through will be large hail (quarter size or potentially larger) and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Tomorrow

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY-Tomorrow

A new update from the Storm Prediction Center will be available in about one hour for tomorrow's severe weather event. I'll update then if maps or discussion change, which I expect it to! More later!

Sunday/Early Evening

New SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for Central/Southern Illinois and Central and Southeastern Missouri.

Storms are developing rapidly. Storms are already producing large hail and damaging winds, particulary with the storm just north of the St. Louis Metro. These storms will most likely maintain their strength and increase in coverage as they near our region. I expect storms to congeal into more of a line as they head eastward. Main severe weather threat will be damaging winds and large hail as they enter Kentuckiana.

Monday/Late Afternoon

Storms are firing in Northern Illinois and Lower Michigan, and WATCHES are going up in that particular area.

Still waiting for storms to fire further south into Western Illinois. When these storms develop, these will be the storms that will have the potential to affect the local area later this evening. Severe weather parameters look great out to the west so storms should begin to pop in the next 1 to 2 hours.

More later...

Monday/Early Afternoon

Focus is on potential for severe weather later this afternoon...

Whats left of the thunderstorms that produced golf ball sized hail in St. Louis is now moving in our direction. It continues to weaken, and clearing skies are developing across a good chunk of Illinois and Southern Indiana. The key question yesterday was instability, and that question has been answered. Dew points are currently in the mid 60's across the region, with even higher dew points to the west.

The cold front is beginning to push into far western Illinois. This will be the energy that sets off a round of showers and thunderstorms which will quickly become severe. (The latest SPC map is below)

And in fact the Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion for most of Illinois and far Western Indiana. (Latest Map below) A WATCH may soon be issued for this area...

More soon...