Thursday/8:30PM

WEATHER CODE: MODERATE

Haven't had to go to a moderate weather alert code in a while. It is obviously needed due to significant rainfall (across most areas) we have seen today and the past couple of days. Sadly, if you didn't like today's weather, then you won't like Friday or Saturday. Yesterday, I had mentioned rainfall would be less widespread than Wednesday, well was I wrong. A shortwave developed and suprised us weather forecasters/meteorologists. In fact, most National Weather Services, yesterday, only had 30 or 40 POPS (Probability of Precipitation) for today. Weather is by no means an easy phenomena to predict. God has authority over the weather, and that's why we don't always get it right!

Tomorrow and Saturday more shortwaves are expected to ride up along the pesky cold front that has been around for sometime now, providing the lift for these showers and storms. Due to the expected coverage and intensity of rain tomorrow and Saturday, the NWS in Louisville has hoisted a FLASH FLOOD WATCH (graphic and text below)

FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. HEAVY RAINS FALLING OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS FOR SOME CREEKS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS.

Should dry out for Sunday. One word for the beginning of next week...BRRRR!!!! Highs on Tuesday will struggle to make it to 60 with lows in the upper 30's and lower 40's! Fall is here after all! More on this tomorrow! Everyone have a God blessed night!

Wednesday/4:00PM

WEATHER CODE: SLIGHT

Haven't had to go to code green in a while. Doing so, due to the potential of a few more isolated heavy downpours across the region this evening. Currently, showers are sitting over Southern Indiana, and have been for most of the day. I am expecting a little more development to the west of this area, so places like Evansville, Paducah, and Vincennes have the chance to get wet a little later on.

Everything should die out as we lose daytime heating...

Showers and thunderstorms will return tomorrow, but they will be even more isolated. However, storms that do pop up will move slow. So, heavy rain is a possibility.

OK, now that we have all of that out of the way, let's talk severe potential for Friday...

The National Weather Service in Louisville says: BY FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK CAPPING AND DECENT INSTABILITY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

Yesterday the SPC had us in a 30% risk in there 4-8 day outlook, now were not even in a slight risk. (Map below) They will update this early tomorrow morning.

After looking at some of the different models, and looking at some of the parameters that look to be in place, I wouldn't be suprised to see the SPC go to a 30% slight risk either in tomorrow morning's update or tomorrow afternoon.

After this, a shot of cool air early next week with highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's. I'll have more on that as we near closer. Everyone have a God blessed night!

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY

As you all know very heavy rain has been falling across Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. Several water rescues have been reported. Water in some areas is as much as 3 feet deep.

...FLASH FLOODING EMERGENCY...

HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH RAINFALL FROM THIS
MORNING...HAVE LED TO SEVERAL REPORTS OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS MAINLY FLOYD...HARRISON AND CLARK COUNTIES IN INDIANA.
NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN THESE LOCATIONS.

SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED OVER FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN CLARKSVILLE INDIANA...ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER REPORTS OF
OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS
CORYDON...SELLERSBURG...MILLTOWN...GEORGETOWN...CHARLESTOWN AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER RUNNING OVER THESE ROADWAYS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION! DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
THE DEPTH OF THE WATER ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IF WATER IS OVER
ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. EVEN IF THE
RAIN HAS ENDED IN YOUR AREA...FLASH FLOODING AND IMPASSABLE
ROADWAYS WILL STILL PREVAIL.

Training thunderstorms also beginning to develop near the Vincennes area.

Friday/4:35PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



One more dry night, before showers and thunderstorms enter the region beginning tomorrow night. Several disturbances will move through the next 5 days. (The 5 day forecast rainfall totals are below)



Although, the HPC is only forecasting 2 to 3 inches of rainfall over the next 5 days, it's very possible some areas will end up with 4 to 5 inches. This is due and part to expected heavy downpours, which may dump 1 or 2 inches in a short period of time. Widespread flooding is not expected, however, some flooding is possible as we near the end of next week. As always, flash flooding is a concern with the heavier downpours. Right now expect rain tomorrow night, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and potentially Wednesday as well. I'm also watching another disturbance the models are beginning to pick up on for next weekend. All in all, a very wet week is setting up after the almost month long dry spell we have experienced.

Hopefully, there will be some dry periods this weekend, so everyone can get out and enjoy the festivities that are going on across the region.

Everyone have a God blessed night!

Thursday/5:20PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



Dry--that's been the popular word, lately, weatherwise across the Wabash and Ohio Valley Region. However, finally, some rain is beginning to enter the picture this evening. A pesky low pressure system that has been spawning showers and thunderstorms well to our south is now beginning to push a bit further north and the showers have made it into the southern parts of the viewing area now. (Southern Kentucky) This low will begin to push even further north over the weekend and by Saturday night and Sunday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the area.

On Monday a cold front will enter the region, this should bring a decent line of showers and thunderstorms, once again, into the region. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected, however a few isolated severe storms are certainly possible due to the potency of the front. If models continue to agree, Tuesday may also be another wet day as the front hangs across the Ohio and Wabash Valleys.

Computer models are still advertising a big cool down, but now they don't have it starting until early next week. We've seen the models pick up on a big cool down the last month or so, and it always get's pushed further back. However, as far as I'm concerned, fall temperatures can still be expected by the first weekend of fall. I'll be fine tuning this for you as we get closer.

For those of you from my hometown in Seymour, Indiana, your 7 day forecast is below.



WHAT'S YOUR FAVORITE THING ABOUT FALL?



Yesterday, I asked people on my facebook what their favorite thing about fall was. Here is some of the responses...

Todd says: The second tornado season
Kristin says: Bon fires and Chili
Alex says: Thanksgiving
Bevin says: Leaves and fresh air
Jordan says: All the colorful nature and the Oktoberfest (in Seymour)
John says: The cool temperatures
Charis says: Cool temps and pretty colors and it smells nice too!
Cassie says: Leaves falling off the trees
Katherine says: The wonderful weather
Pegi says: The most I enjoy about fall are the sounds of crickets, apple picking, cooler weather, wearing sweaters, and being able to be outside more walking especially through the fallen leaves.

Bethany says: I love all the beautiful fall colors!
Dawna says: apple cider, blustery stormy nights, the smell of woodsmoke hanging in the chilly night air....and taking walks after a storm and seeing the miniature fall leaves, perfectly formed-perfectly colored, pasted to the sidewalk by the deluge.
My mom says: Hearing your dad complain about all the leaves to rake! NOT!

-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Wednesday/12:15PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



Another dry day is on tap across the region with sunny skies and temperatures in the lower and middle 80's.

Showers and thunderstorms still look to be on the increase as we enter the Sunday/Monday time frame. Models are still trying to iron out how much moisture will be available these two days. I'll fine tune the forecast this evening. As advertised yesterday, the big cool down looks to be on the way by the middle of next week. How cool is still the big question. Just taking a peak at the models, we may have a few days with highs in the middle 60's and lows in the lower 40's! I'll have a full update tonight along with the tropical forecast! Everyone have a God blessed day!

Tuesday/3:30PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



It was another dry and warm day across the Wabash and Ohio Valley Region, and this should continue for a majority of the week. However, changes are ahead, and right in time for the Fall season to officially kick into gear. As you know, we have a had a very cool summer. In fact it was the 34th coolest summer in the United States since they started keeping weather data. Pretty impressive to say the least.

Before we talk about the cooler weather that is expected, let's talk about what is going to be ushering in the cooler air. A very potent cold front is expected to settle into the region by Sunday and Monday. There a couple of differences in the computer models when it comes to timing, but a majority do have precipitation. In fact, looking at some of the dynamics associated with this storm system, wouldn't be suprised to see a round of severe weather.

NWS in Louisville says: AS THE FIRST WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...STRONG H5 TROF IS FCST TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...AND A ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

As mentioned above this front will bring some cooler weather into the Wabash and Ohio Valley's. How cool will it get? Well right now, middle 70's for highs and lows in the upper 50's to lower 60's look likely.

Late next week, which, I know, is still several days away, models are beginning to pin-point a more intense cool down.

NWS in LOUISVILLE SAYS: BEYOND THE FCST PD...THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP A VERY LARGE UPPER TROF CENTERED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE TROF AXIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH IT PIVOTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT FRIDAY. H5 HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 2 STD BELOW NORMAL...WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 0. THE 15/12Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE...SO A SHOT AT SOME UPPER 30/LOWER 40S IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEK TO HELP USHER IN THE FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

I'm not going to jump on this bandwagon quite yet, but it's quite possible we may need our coats late next week. I'll have more tomorrow about severe weather chances, and an update on this potential big time cool down. Have a God blessed night!

Thursday/12:00AM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE

Even though its not quite Thursday until another 40 minutes, I'm going to act as if it is...

Another dry day on tap for today, however some patchy fog is already developing and will continue to develop through the early morning hours. Some of the fog will be fairly dense in isolated areas, so please use caution if your going out this early morning. Looks like, now, the dry weather will continue through the weekend with near normal temperatures.

Mr. Fred has now been downgraded to a category 2 hurricane. (Current track below) It was a category 3 earlier today. It will take a westward movement in about 4 days, but by this time it may only be a remnant low. We'll have to watch this to see if it can get its act together once again.

Got this off of Belski's blog. I believe the guy that made this forecast is on the ACCUWEATHER forums. Anyhow, here is his winter forecast, so far. click... HERE

Everyone have a God blessed night!

Tuesday/6:20PM

The Farmers Almanac is predicting a frigid winter for nearly the entire country. For more on this click... HERE

Personally, I cannot wait for winter. It is my favorite season. Winter storms bring a whole new level to the word "prediction" in meteorology.

Tropical storm Fred has now formed in the far eastern Atlantic. The 5 day cone from the NHC is below...

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It looks like Fred, at this time, will stay away from the United States. Other than Fred, the tropics are fairly quiet at this time.

Tuesday/3:40PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



Sorry I haven't updated in a while. I am now majoring in Broadcasting at Vincennes University. In late September I will be on WVUT channel 22 here in Vincennes as the weather anchor. If you live in Bedford, Terre Haute, Evansville, or anywhere around these areas, you will be able to pick up the channel!

As for the weather, a few scattered showers out there today, especially across Northern Indiana and areas east of I65. This is do and part to a pesky low pressure system that just doesn't want to move away. This will continue to provide a chance for a few showers and or thunderstorms the next 2 days, especially east of I65. Temperatures through next Monday, at least, will be near normal with highs in the lower 80's and lows in the upper 50's and lower 60's.

As for the weekend, time will tell. Computer models really not agreeing at this point. What they do agree on is a strong upper low diving into the northern Plains by Thursday/Friday. The disagreement is where the highest concentration of precipitation will be, and how much rain will fall. I'll be fine tuning this as we get closer to the weekend. More tonight...everyone have a God blessed day!

Thursday/10:53PM

Sorry I haven't updated for a while. I just got moved into college this past weekend, and am now very busy with 18 credit hours. I just tried out for the weather anchor position at WVUT here in Vincennes. I will find out, most likely tomorrow, if I made it or not. I sure hope I did. Its something Ive been wanting to do since I was 4 years old. What an opportunity!

Short and brief weather update tonight. There is still the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up overnight. The atmosphere is still fairly unstable. Tomorrow will be the best potential we've had all week for showers and thunderstorms. Storms that do develop tomorrow will again, like today, have the potential to produce very heavy downpours (potentially up to 1 inch per hour rainfall rates) I'll have more on your weekend forecast and more tomorrow. Everyone have a great night!

Tuesday/10:14PM

Woops! I haven't updated for several days! I apologize. I have been very busy getting ready for college. I move to Vincennes Thursday morning.

Alot has happened since I last updated...

Anna isn't even considered a tropical depression at this time. However she is providing quite a bit of moisture for the Southwestern portion of the United States.

What was Claudette is pumping plenty of moisture in our direction, however storms have had a problem forming today due to the lack of upper air support.

Bill is now a strong category 3 storm with winds of 125 MPH. Track from the NHC takes it away from the coast, however this track is not set in stone. Even if it doesn't hit the coast, there will be very high waves and rip currents. I'll have more on this at 11.

Getting worried about the potential for a severe weather event for our area on Thursday. I'll have more on this tomorrow...

Sunday/10:00PM

Ok Im going to try and cover the weather quickly. Very busy today, and will be for the next several days getting ready for college.

-Isolated storms here tomorrow

-Storms will be increasing Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Tropical storm Claudette may increase heavy rain potential and flash flooding potential. Possible severe Thursday.

-Tropical Storm Claudette will make landfall tonight near Panama City. Flooding, minor wind damage, and tornadoes will be likely.

-Ana has been downgraded to a tropical depression. It's going to have problems getting its act together as it encounters alot of land. This still has the potential to become a tropical storm or hurricane. Track from the NHC has this potentially hitting New Orleans.

-Bill could potentially become a monster cateogory 4 or 5 storm as it nears the East Coast. Could hit the East Coast, or curve away as it approaches. I will fine tune that tomorrow.

Saturday/5:15PM

WEATHER CODE: NON SEVERE



Temperatures tonight will only drop into the upper 60's and low 70's. No precipitation tonight so if you want to have a backyard barbeque...the weather looks great!

Chances for precipitation will not return until Monday, but then it should remain fairly consistent throughout the rest of next week. I'll have more on this tomorrow, and if there are any severe weather chances...

The main focus, however, is on the tropics. We now have to tropical storms, one named Ana and the other is Bill.

Ana is the first storm we will have to monitor, but really its not to far in front of Bill. To give you a glimpse of how close they are to each other, (look below)

(Click on any image for a larger view)
(All images are from the National Hurricane Center)



Ana is having some trouble strengthening due to wind shear and dry air around the storm. The projected path from the NHC (image below this text) now has this going into the Gulf of Mexico, which alarms me. Conditions are fairly ripe for strengthening (at least at this time) in the GOM (especially the eastern GOM) If you live from Georgia to Texas, this is a storm that needs to be monitored. As many know, Katrina devastated New Orleans back in 2005, and they could POTENTIALLY be in the path of this storm.



Bill is the second storm we are closely monitoring. Bill is expected to become a cateogory 2 hurricane 120 hours out. The NHC takes this near the Bahamas 5 days out. (Image below)



If we continued that cone north and west, it would seem the southeast has the best shot at getting hit by Bill. However, the 12Z GFS has this running up the coast and not hitting land. Whatever the case, it sure looks to be a powerful hurricane as it nears the East Coast of the United States. So again, the potential is there for 2 hurricanes to hit the U.S. in the next 1 to 2 weeks. If you live near the Gulf of Mexico or on the East Coast, I encourage you to come to my blog daily as I keep you abreast of the situation.

We will also have to monitor these storms to see if they will play a role in our weather as well...

-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Friday/6:15PM

WEATHER CODE: NON SEVERE

Dry weather and comfortable temperatures will continue through the rest of the night, and it still looks to stay that way through the weekend.

All attention is on the tropics as several disturbances are now active. The only hurricane we have is hurricane Guillermo, and this is in the Eastern Pacific. This is expected to weaken as it progresses. Still something to keep an eye on as it heads west.

The main focus, however, is another wave that is currently in the eastern Pacific. This is forecasted to strengthen rapidly into a tropical storm tomorrow, and potentially a hurricane by Sunday. The number 2 on the picture below is the wave that is being watched very closely.

(CLICK ON ANY IMAGE FOR A LARGER VIEW)

The 12Z GFS now has a hurricane hitting eastern Florida 228 hours out, and it could be a major hurricane at that. (Image below) Computer models will be shifting the next several days on where this storm will end up. Bottom line is...if you live anywhere from the Gulf Coast to the East coast...you need to monitor this situation.

Friday/4:19PM

It has been a great day weather wise! If you haven't got the chance to go out and enjoy it...go now!

Im going to be having a full update later this evening about the potential for a significant hurricane to hit the U.S. in about a week or so. Stay tuned for that...have a great afternoon!

WEATHER CODE: NON SEVERE

Sunny skies and cooler temperatures are the rule for the rest of today, and really for the rest of the week. Temperatures may get near 90 by the end of the week, but all in all, near to below average temperatures and dry conditions are expected through Sunday.

However, we have alot to talk about...the tropics are heating up!

Tropical depression 2 has formed out in the Central Atlantic. The NHC doesn't have this becoming a hurricane in there 5 day cone. It will be encountering wind shear the next several days, however strengthening is very possible as it nears the coast. If you live from Florida or up and down the East Coast...you will need to monitor this situation. For more on tropical depression 2 click... HERE

Also tropical depression TEN-E has formed in the eastern pacific. This is expected to become a tropical storm in the next day or two. This depression will also need to be monitored very closely as this is expected to strengthen faster than tropical depression 2.

-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Tuesday/12:01AM

Showers and thunderstorms still in progress south of Louisville. Flooding rains in Louisville and in New Albany and surrounding areas earlier. Their were some water rescues.

There were also a couple of fires, including one in Brownstown, Indiana...about 10 minutes west of Seymour...

For more on the fire click... HERE

Showers and thunderstorms will return tomorrow, however, the more widespread activity will be further south. Right now it appears the heaviest rains will set up shop south and southwest of Louisville. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will still be possible from the Ohio River and on north. Also, the SPC has highlighted areas immediatley south of the Ohio River in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. I will have more tomorrow on this as it develops. Have a great night!

Monday/4:00PM

A Mesoscale Discussion has been issued by the SPC for the entire region (graphic and text below) Storms are beginning to develop north of a Seymour, North Vernon, Bedford line. These are not currently severe, but there is plenty of unstable air across the region. So, some storms could very well go severe. STAY TUNED!

SPC SAYS: AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN KY INTO WV. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH...MULTIPLE QUASI-LINEAR BROKEN BANDS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN KY TO WV THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL REGIME IS NOT STRONGLY FORCED ACROSS THIS REGION...AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/VIGOR. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE BUOYANCY...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PERIODIC DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS SOME PULSE HAIL THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.

Monday/1:00PM

WEATHER CODE: SLIGHT ***Slight risk of severe weather***



Ok focus will be on potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening...

The Storm Prediction Center has posted a good portion of the region in a SLIGHT RISK for severe for this afternoon and evening. (See graphics and text below) The atmosphere has destabilized quite rapidly with sun pretty widespread across the area. Storms will develop over Central Illinois in a couple of hours, then push east and southeast into the region by late afternoon and early evening. Best threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. There is potential for an isolated tornado, especially across Central Indiana. Please monitor the weather situation throughout the afternoon and evening. Other probabilities are 2% tornado (in Central Indiana) 15% wind and 15% hail. More later...



SPC SAYS: SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM NRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...REGIONS OF CLOUDS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAVE INHIBITED DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI INTO IL AND NRN MO. STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM INDIANA AND OH WITH INDICATION OF A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM EXTREME SERN LOWER MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL SPEEDS OF 30-40 KT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS WITH OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.