Thursday/8:30PM

WEATHER CODE: MODERATE

Haven't had to go to a moderate weather alert code in a while. It is obviously needed due to significant rainfall (across most areas) we have seen today and the past couple of days. Sadly, if you didn't like today's weather, then you won't like Friday or Saturday. Yesterday, I had mentioned rainfall would be less widespread than Wednesday, well was I wrong. A shortwave developed and suprised us weather forecasters/meteorologists. In fact, most National Weather Services, yesterday, only had 30 or 40 POPS (Probability of Precipitation) for today. Weather is by no means an easy phenomena to predict. God has authority over the weather, and that's why we don't always get it right!

Tomorrow and Saturday more shortwaves are expected to ride up along the pesky cold front that has been around for sometime now, providing the lift for these showers and storms. Due to the expected coverage and intensity of rain tomorrow and Saturday, the NWS in Louisville has hoisted a FLASH FLOOD WATCH (graphic and text below)

FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. HEAVY RAINS FALLING OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS FOR SOME CREEKS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS.

Should dry out for Sunday. One word for the beginning of next week...BRRRR!!!! Highs on Tuesday will struggle to make it to 60 with lows in the upper 30's and lower 40's! Fall is here after all! More on this tomorrow! Everyone have a God blessed night!

Wednesday/4:00PM

WEATHER CODE: SLIGHT

Haven't had to go to code green in a while. Doing so, due to the potential of a few more isolated heavy downpours across the region this evening. Currently, showers are sitting over Southern Indiana, and have been for most of the day. I am expecting a little more development to the west of this area, so places like Evansville, Paducah, and Vincennes have the chance to get wet a little later on.

Everything should die out as we lose daytime heating...

Showers and thunderstorms will return tomorrow, but they will be even more isolated. However, storms that do pop up will move slow. So, heavy rain is a possibility.

OK, now that we have all of that out of the way, let's talk severe potential for Friday...

The National Weather Service in Louisville says: BY FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK CAPPING AND DECENT INSTABILITY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

Yesterday the SPC had us in a 30% risk in there 4-8 day outlook, now were not even in a slight risk. (Map below) They will update this early tomorrow morning.

After looking at some of the different models, and looking at some of the parameters that look to be in place, I wouldn't be suprised to see the SPC go to a 30% slight risk either in tomorrow morning's update or tomorrow afternoon.

After this, a shot of cool air early next week with highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's. I'll have more on that as we near closer. Everyone have a God blessed night!

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY

As you all know very heavy rain has been falling across Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. Several water rescues have been reported. Water in some areas is as much as 3 feet deep.

...FLASH FLOODING EMERGENCY...

HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH RAINFALL FROM THIS
MORNING...HAVE LED TO SEVERAL REPORTS OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS MAINLY FLOYD...HARRISON AND CLARK COUNTIES IN INDIANA.
NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN THESE LOCATIONS.

SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED OVER FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN CLARKSVILLE INDIANA...ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER REPORTS OF
OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS
CORYDON...SELLERSBURG...MILLTOWN...GEORGETOWN...CHARLESTOWN AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER RUNNING OVER THESE ROADWAYS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION! DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
THE DEPTH OF THE WATER ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IF WATER IS OVER
ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. EVEN IF THE
RAIN HAS ENDED IN YOUR AREA...FLASH FLOODING AND IMPASSABLE
ROADWAYS WILL STILL PREVAIL.

Training thunderstorms also beginning to develop near the Vincennes area.

Friday/4:35PM

WEATHER CODE: NON-SEVERE



One more dry night, before showers and thunderstorms enter the region beginning tomorrow night. Several disturbances will move through the next 5 days. (The 5 day forecast rainfall totals are below)



Although, the HPC is only forecasting 2 to 3 inches of rainfall over the next 5 days, it's very possible some areas will end up with 4 to 5 inches. This is due and part to expected heavy downpours, which may dump 1 or 2 inches in a short period of time. Widespread flooding is not expected, however, some flooding is possible as we near the end of next week. As always, flash flooding is a concern with the heavier downpours. Right now expect rain tomorrow night, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and potentially Wednesday as well. I'm also watching another disturbance the models are beginning to pick up on for next weekend. All in all, a very wet week is setting up after the almost month long dry spell we have experienced.

Hopefully, there will be some dry periods this weekend, so everyone can get out and enjoy the festivities that are going on across the region.

Everyone have a God blessed night!